Big Story Weather – October 3, 2013
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from October 2:
Severe weather was limited to hail around 1.75 inches in Nebraska along with damaging winds of 60-65mph over Nebraska. Winter weather started ramping up last night with heavy snowfall already starting to hit the Rockies of Wyoming and Montana with some places already picked up over 6 inches of snowfall.
Big Story Weather Discussion for October 3:
Surface Map: High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will bring partly cloudy skies and mild weather to the East Coast. Low pressure over the Rockies will slowly push towards the Plains over the next 24-36 hours. This will be the focus of a major winter storm. High pressure over the Western United States will bring gusty winds and warm weather to the region. A tropical wave over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico is probably going to become a tropical depression or storm later this morning or afternoon.
Severe Weather: There will be two areas of concern today. The first will be along the Gulf Coast where this area will see increasing thunderstorms with the potential for flooding rains and strong winds. The second will be along the cold front from the Great Lakes to Texas where this area will see damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.
Winter Weather: A major winter storm will be pushing through the Rockies and the Black Hills and spreading into Western South Dakota and North Dakota. Snowfall totals will range from 12-18 inches over the Rockies to 6-12 inches over the Black Hills and around 4-6 inches for Western South Dakota and North Dakota. Lighter amounts will spread east towards the Missouri River. A frost/freeze watch is also in effect for Southern Oregon.
Flooding: There will be a moderate chance for onshore flooding along the LA/MS border today as the stronger southeast winds begin to start pushing the waters onshore.
Tropical Weather: Jerry has been downgraded to a tropical depression. An area over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico will more than likely become a tropical storm later this morning and it will become Karen if that does occur. Winds are around 40kts with the system at this time.
Winds: The western parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas will be dealing with strong southerly winds around 40-50mph. There will also be wind-driven dust storms possible over SOCAL.
Select City Forecast:
New York NY: Partly cloudy with a high near 75F and overnight lows near 64F.
Gulfport MS: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 82F and overnight lows near 78F. Total rainfall around 0.50 inches.
Fargo ND: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 62F and overnight lows near 50F. Total rainfall around 1 inch.
Bismarck ND: Mostly cloudy with showers and a high near 50F and overnight lows near 44F. Total rainfall near 1 inch.
Portland OR: Partly cloudy with a high near 50F and overnight lows near 46F.
October 3, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Latest Images: The top right image is Tropical Storm Fitow. With winds around 60kts and pressure of 978mb the storm should become a Typhoon later today. The lower image is Invest 97L. This area should become a tropical storm later today as well over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Low pressure moving towards Alaska will bring showers, higher elevation snows and gusty winds to the area.
Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Depression Jerry is moving towards the Cape Verde Islands and rapidly weakening. Invest 97L is gaining strength with winds around 40kts. The area should become a tropical storm later today and will slowly move towards the US Gulf Coast. Low pressure in the Rockies will be pushing into the Plains bringing with it snow, rain and severe weather. Another tropical wave has emerged off of Africa and will need to be watched for possible tropical development. Low pressure moving through Eastern Europe will bring showers to the region along with a few snow showers to the Alps.
Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Fitow continues tracking towards the north-northwest with winds around 60kts and pressure of 978mb. The storm will intensify into a Typhoon today and continue tracking towards Okinawa. Another area is being watched to the northeast of Guam for possible tropical development. Low pressure will track over Russia and will bring showers to the area.
Indian Ocean: There is an area of disturbed weather near India that is being watched for possible tropical development over the next couple of days. The southwest monsoon continues to be no impact.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure continue to move through the basin. Impacts are being felt over Southern Argentina with showers. A second low pressure is traveling just south of Africa and will bring strong winds to Southern Africa. A third area of low pressure is impacting South-Central Australia with showers and gusty winds.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for October 3-7:
New York NY: The region will start out impact free. The period will end with a few thunderstorms that will bring slight to moderate impacts to the region.
Gulfport MS: The region will have impacts each day with the strongest impacts being felt over the weekend as the potential exists for tropical storm force conditions over the area.
Fargo ND: The region will have slight to moderate impacts over the next few days as a strong cold front pushes through bringing thunderstorms and rain showers to the area.
Bismarck ND: The area will have moderate impacts today from rain. Look for moderate impacts over the next couple of days with rain and snow possible. The period will then finish impact free.
Portland OR: The area will enjoy the next five days impact free.
Climate Watch Almanac for September 28- October 2:
New York NY: The region started around 1 degree above then fell to around 1-2 degrees below finishing the period around 2-3 degrees above normal.
Gulfport MS: The area enjoyed temps around 1-2 degrees above normal for the majority of the period there was a small window of temps around 1 degree below normal on the 30th.
Fargo ND; The period started with temps around 4 degrees below normal and then finished around 8-13 degrees above normal for the remainder of the period.
Bismarck ND: The past five days the region has seen temps around 1-11 degrees above normal.
Portland OR: The past five days have seen temps around 6-15 degrees below normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 3, 2013:
Day 1-3: High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will keep the majority of the East Coast with partly cloudy skies and nice weather. Thunderstorms will be on the increase over the Gulf Coast. Along with that, the onshore flow will start to increase the seas and also potential for surge will start. A massive winter storm will be pushing through the Rockies and Northern Plains with snowfall amounts ranging from 6 inches over Western South Dakota and North Dakota to 10-12 inches in the Black Hills and near 2ft over parts of Wyoming. There will also be severe weather from the Great Lakes to Texas. The West Coast will enjoy nice weather, however dust storms and sand storms could be on the increase over Southwest Arizona and into SOCAL. Day two the massive storm system will push into the Plains bringing more severe weather to the Great Lakes, heavy rainfall to the Eastern Dakotas and more snowfall to the Western Dakotas. The tropical feature will be approaching the Gulf Coast at this time as well from LA-FL. The period will finish with the cold front extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast and also a land-falling tropical anywhere from MS-FL with strong winds, heavy rains and storm surge.
Day 4-7: The period will start with a frontal boundary extending from the Northeast all the way into Florida, expect to see heavy rainfall over this entire region. Another low pressure area will be moving through the Northern Plains with another round of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will keep the West Coast cool and nice. The period will end with a new low taking shape over Texas bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Day 8-12: The period will start with low pressure and a frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes into Texas. Expect to see showers and thunderstorms along this front – some severe weather as well. A strong and cold high pressure area will be pushing into the Plains bringing some very cold air to the region. Day nine a major storm system will be over the Great Lakes with rain and possibly heavy snowfall. Thunderstorms will extend from the Northeast to the Gulf Coast. High pressure will be over the Plains and the West Coast. Day eleven the storm system will begin to clear the Northeast Coast, while the strong high pressure settles in over the Southeast bringing some of the coolest air since last winter. The Western US will be tranquil with no major impacts. The period will finish with a pretty settled weather pattern over most of the United States.
Long Range Outlook: The period will start with high pressure over the East Coast and a new storm system entering the West Coast. The middle of the period will have high pressure along the East Coast, a storm system in the Northern Plains, and another very powerful storm system heading into the Pacific Northwest. The period will end with a major storm system over the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies with showers, snow showers again.
Today’s Spotlight Cities Forecast:
Cleveland OH: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 73F and overnight lows near 63F. Total rainfall near 0.45 inches. Friday mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 74F and overnight lows near 62F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches. Saturday partly cloudy with a high near 77F and overnight lows near 65F. Sunday mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 76F and overnight lows near 51F. Total rainfall around 0.50 inches. Monday partly cloudy with a high near 60F and overnight lows near 49F.
Rapid City SD: Mostly cloudy with showers. High temps around 54F and overnight lows near 40F. Total rainfall around 0.75 inches. Friday mostly cloudy with rain and snow showers. High temps near 40F and overnight lows near 30F. Total rainfall near 0.45 inches. Total snowfall around 2-4 inches. Saturday partly cloudy with a few morning snow showers. High temps around 39F and overnight lows near 34F. Total snowfall around 1-2 inches. Sunday partly cloudy and mild with a high near 60F and overnight lows near 47F. Monday partly cloudy and warm with high temps near 70F and overnight lows near 52F.
Mobile AL: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 86F and overnight lows near 74F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches. Friday mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and breezy conditions. High temps around 86F and overnight lows near 74F. Total rainfall around 1.25 inches. Saturday partly cloudy with morning thunderstorms. High temps around 80F and overnight lows near 69F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches along with gusty winds. Sunday partly cloudy with a high near 88F and overnight lows near 61F. Monday partly cloudy with a high near 80F and overnight lows near 56F.
Ask The Weatherman for October 3, 2013:
Question: What is the difference between a watch and a warning?
Answer: The National Weather Service in the United States issues both watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for a particular event, while a warning says they are or will be happening within a short amount of time.
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Green Energy Weather Report for October 3, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be moderate amounts of energy over the Northeast. The Southeast will see slight to moderate amounts of energy. The Gulf Coast will see energy levels increase to moderate possibly becoming extreme overnight. The entire West Coast will see moderate amounts of energy.
Hydro Energy: There will be plenty of short term and long term energy over the Rockies and the Northern Plains. There will also be a pocket of short term energy over the Plains and the Great Lakes. There will be ample amounts of short term energy along the Gulf Coast as well.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of energy over the East Coast and the West Coast. The Southwest will see plenty of solar energy. There will be limited amounts along the Southeast and Southern Texas in between thunderstorms.
Wind Energy: The strongest amounts of wind energy will occur over the Rockies and into the Western Plains around the strong low pressure area.
October 3 Weather and Your Wallet (Sioux Falls SD):
A strong cold front will begin to push into the region bringing showers to the area by evening.
Dining: This morning would be a fine time to enjoy breakfast outside and also during lunch time.
Transportation: There will be delays around and just after rush hour. Also the airports will begin to see some delays on the later flights.
Shopping: This evening if you’re out shopping you will want an umbrella.
Electricity: The region will see a small window overnight of needing to heat the region. The forecast is for 5HDD’s on the day.
Yard Work: This morning will be the best time to get any yard work done before the showers move into the region for the next couple of days.
Construction: There should be no issues throughout the day, however overnight projects may run into some impacts.
Outdoor Venues: Look for a nice morning to take the dog for a walk in the park. This evening you will want to take an umbrella and jacket with you.