Big Story Weather – October 4, 2013
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from October 3:
Yesterday was a very active day from the perspective of severe weather and also winter weather. Severe weather consisted of 9 tornadoes over Eastern Nebraska along with hail the size of 2.75 inches and wind gusts around 60-70mph. Winter weather consisted of snowfall in excess of 1ft for parts of Wyoming.
Big Story Weather Discussion for October 4:
Surface Map: High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will keep the region dry. A few showers will push through the Northeast. Tropical Storm Karen will begin to approach the Gulf Coast bringing tropical storm force winds and hurricane wind gusts to the region from MS to FL along the coast. Flooding rains and also storm surge will be a problem this weekend. Severe thunderstorms will be possible from Chicago to Houston along the cold front. Blizzard conditions will dominate the weather over Eastern Wyoming and Western South Dakota as low pressure moves through the region. The West Coast will enjoy high pressure and mild weather.
Severe Weather: The region along the frontal boundary will be the focus of severe weather with tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. A second area of severe weather will be possible along the Gulf Coast ahead of Tropical Storm Karen.
Winter Weather: Frost and Freeze warnings scattered throughout the West due to high pressure and the cooler air in place. A blizzard warning is in effect from Western South Dakota into Eastern Wyoming with some places seeing snowfall in excess of 12-18 inches. Winter storm watch is also in effect for regions around the blizzard. These places will see around 6-8 inches of snowfall.
Flooding: The largest concern for flooding today will take place along the Gulf Coast with the arrival of Karen. Expect to see heavy rainfall along with coastal surge of 4-6ft.
Tropical Weather: Tropical Storm Karen is the big story for this weekend. The storm is going to approach Southeast Louisiana before turning to the east. This will send the storm over the MS/AL coast and then into a landfall around Pensacola Florida. Winds will be in the 60-70mph range for Pensacola decreasing to the 55-65mph range for Mobile Al. Winds will also be around 50-60mph for the MS Gulf Coast. Karen has sustained winds around 60mph this morning with higher gusts. The storm is slowly moving northward towards the Gulf Coast.
Winds: The strongest winds will be found over the Northern Plains behind the cold front with winds gusting in the 30-50mph range. The second largest wind field will be associated with Karen as mentioned above from Pensacola to Biloxi. Winds will be in excess of 50mph.
Select City Forecast:
Boston MA: Showers and clouds for today with a high around 65F and overnight lows near 57F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches.
Houston TX: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 84F and overnight lows near 76F. Total rainfall near 0.45 inches.
Minneapolis MN: Mostly cloudy and cool with showers. High temps around 59F and overnight lows near 54F. Total rainfall around 0.45 inches.
Boise ID: Partly cloudy and cool with a high near 49F and overnight lows near 42F.
Seattle WA: Partly cloudy with a high near 61F and overnight lows near 54F.
October 4, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Latest Images: The top right image is Typhoon Fitow which has winds around 85kts and pressure near 959mb as it continues to track towards Okinawa Japan. Bottom right is Tropical Storm Karen. Winds are near 55kts and pressure of 1003mb. This storm continues to track towards the Gulf Coast of the US.
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Low pressure moving towards Alaska will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. Low pressure moving into the Northern Plains will bring showers, thunderstorms, severe weather and blizzard conditions along with heavy snowfall to the region.
Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Karen continues to move towards the Northern Gulf Coast with winds around 55kts. The storm should make landfall this weekend along the Gulf Coast with winds of 60-70mph very possible for places in the Florida Panhandle decreasing to around 50-60mph for the MS and AL coastline. Another wave pushing off the coast of Africa is being watched for possible tropical development. Low pressure moving into Europe will bring showers to the region and snow showers to the Alps.
Western Pacific: Typhoon Fitow continues to turn towards Okinawa with winds around 85kts and pressure near 959mb. A second tropical depression is moving north of Guam and should become a tropical storm this weekend and is currently on a path for Japan.
Indian Ocean: There is an area of disturbed weather near India that is being watched for possible tropical development over the next couple of days. The southwest monsoon continues to be no impact.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure moving through the basin with impacts being felt over Southern Argentina with strong winds. A second low is pushing to the south of Africa and will bring strong winds to portions of South Africa. Another low will bring showers to portions of Southern Australia.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for October 4-8:
Boston MA: There will be showers today bringing a slight impact to the area. Another round of showers will move in around the 6th and 7th bringing slight impacts to the region.
Houston TX: The region will have moderate impacts over the next couple of days with thunderstorms moving through the region. The remainder of the period will be impact free.
Minneapolis MN: The period will start with impacts associated with showers.
Boise ID: The next five days will be impact free for the region.
Seattle WA: The area will start impact free. The period will finish with moderate impacts associated with showers.
Climate Watch Almanac for September 29- October 3:
Boston MA: The period started with temps around 2-6 degrees below normal and then finished the period around 8-16 degrees above normal.
Houston TX: The period started with temps around 3 degrees below followed by a warm up with temps around 1-3 degrees above normal.
Minneapolis MN: The period started with temps around 11-15 degrees above normal and then finished with temps around 3 degrees below normal.
Boise ID; The past five days have provided the region with temps around 4-15 degrees below normal.
Seattle WA: The area started with temps around 4-9 degrees above normal. The rest of the period had temps around 7-10 degrees below normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 4, 2013:
Day 1-3: High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will bring partly cloudy skies to the region. Tropical Storm Karen will begin to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast. A very potent low pressure area moving through the Plains will bring thunderstorms, severe weather and wintery conditions to the region with rainfall amounts around 1-2 inches and snowfall amounts over 18 inches in Western South Dakota and Eastern Wyoming. High pressure will keep the West Coast dry. Day two the winter storm will continue to dump heavy snowfall over the Northern Plains. Karen will begin to approach the Gulf Coast with winds picking up to 50-60mph from MS-FL along with storm surge on the rise and rainfall becoming heavy. The period will end with Karen pushing onshore near Pensacola Florida, while high pressure builds into the rest of the United States.
Day 4-7: The period will start with high pressure over a good portion of the United States bringing cold weather to the Northern Plains and also temps into the 50’s overnight along the Southeast and Gulf Coast. The remains of Karen will push off the Mid-Atlantic bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will settle in over most of the United States bringing tranquil weather. The period will end with a new low taking shape over the Southern Rockies bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. This will expand into the Southern Plains as well.
Day 8-12: The period will start with high pressure along the East Coast, while the storm system pushes through the Plains with showers and thunderstorms for the region. High pressure will keep the West Coast dry as well. The period will end with high pressure along both coasts, while a strong storm system moves over the Northern Plains with heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Long Range Outlook: The period will see a frontal boundary extending from the Northeast back into the Gulf Coast with showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. High pressure will be over the Plains and also over the West Coast.
Today’s Spotlight Cities Forecast:
Chicago IL: Cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 77F and overnight lows near 65F. Total rainfall around 0.45 inches. Saturday mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps near 75F and overnight lows near 50F. Total rainfall near 0.25 inches. Sunday partly cloudy with a high near 59F and overnight lows near 50F. Monday partly cloudy with a high near 65F and overnight lows near 46F. Tuesday partly cloudy with a high near 70F and overnight lows near 49F.
Mobile AL: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 86F and overnight lows near 75F. Total rainfall around 1.25 inches. Winds will gust to near 45mph. Saturday mostly cloudy with hurricane force winds along with thunderstorms. High temps will be around 85F and overnight lows near 74F. Total rainfall near 2.50 inches and wind gusts as high as 65mph. Sunday partly cloudy by afternoon with a high near 82F and overnight lows near 64F. Monday partly cloudy with a high near 80F and overnight lows near 55F. Tuesday partly cloudy with a high near 82F and overnight lows near 64F.
Rapid City SD: Cloudy with rain and heavy snowfall. High temps around 44F and overnight lows near 30F. Blizzard conditions will be possible overnight. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches. Total snowfall around 6-10 inches. Saturday mostly cloudy with morning snow showers. High temps around 36F and overnight lows near 30F. Total snowfall around 1-3 inches. Sunday partly cloudy with a high near 45F and overnight lows near 34F. Monday partly cloudy and mild with a high near 60F and overnight lows near 47F. Tuesday partly cloudy with a high near 68F and overnight lows near 54F.
Ask The Weatherman for October 4, 2013:
Question: What are the stages of tropical development?
Answer: Tropical development has multiple stages. The first stage is called a tropical wave. From there it can intensify into a tropical depression. From that it will then move up to a Tropical Storm. From there it can go higher to a Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone depending on where on the globe it is. Then the maximum stage is a Major Hurricane, Super Typhoon, Super Cyclone.
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Green Energy Weather Report for October 4, 2013:
Wave Energy: The entire East Coast will see moderate amounts of wave energy, while the Gulf Coast will have extreme amounts of energy. The West Coast will see moderate amounts of energy.
Hydro Energy: There will be plenty of short term and long term energy over the Rockies and the Northern Plains. There will also be a pocket of short term energy over the Plains and the Great Lakes. There will be ample amounts of short term energy along the Gulf Coast as well.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of energy over the East Coast and also the West Coast. The Southwest will see plenty of solar energy. There will be limited amounts along the Southeast and Southern Texas in between thunderstorms.
Wind Energy: The strongest amounts of wind energy will occur over the Rockies and into the Western Plains around the strong low pressure area. There will also be an increase in wind energy along the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen begins to approach the area.
October 4 Weather and Your Wallet (Biloxi MS):
Hurricane Watch in effect. Tropical Storm Karen will begin to approach the area. Expect to see increasing winds along with showers and thunderstorms and storm surge to start building into the region. This will lead to flooding for the local area. Tropical storm conditions will begin to impact the area overnight with the chance of seeing hurricane force wind gusts on Saturday.
Dining: This morning would be the best time to get out and enjoy breakfast at the beach or at your favorite bistro.
Transportation: This morning will be slow going as the winds start to pick up and bring impacts to the overpasses along with cross winds at the airport. This will slow down arrivals and departures. This evening look for the addition of flooding on the major highways which will make it a tough evening of travel.
Shopping: This morning you should be getting your final preps done before the arrival of Karen.
Electricity: The area will see a demand of cooling with the projected CDD’s around 16. There will also be some power impacts this evening as the tropical storm force winds begin to impact the area.
Yard Work: This evening you may be dealing with flooding and downed branches in the back yard as the winds and rains increase.
Construction: This morning will be the best time to get that outdoor work done. This evening and overnight will be very dangerous.
Outdoor Venues: Take the dog for a walk on the bridge or the boardwalk this morning as this evening will be a rough period to be outside.