Experts Say Wetter, Cooler Winter Ahead for Washington
By Chris Mulick, Tri-City Herald, Kennewick, Wash.
Nov. 10–PORTLAND — A panel of meteorologists Friday predicted a wetter and cooler winter that ought to delight skiers, power managers, fish advocates, irrigators and perhaps even school children.
Several different forecasts were presented at a winter weather forum at the Oregon Museum and Science and Industry, each using different methodologies.
But each concluded that this year’s La Nia conditions will bring cooler temperatures and more moisture than usual, particularly in the mountains and west of the Cascades.
Steve Todd from the National Weather Service in Portland said those conditions provide the “strongest indicator of what our winter weather in going to be like.”
“We would expect this winter to be markedly different from last winter,” said Pete Parsons, a meteorologist from the Oregon state Department of Agriculture.
In many ways, it could be an ideal winter for management of the regional hydroelectric system.
“We’re definitely going to have an above-average water year,” said Kyle Dittmer, a hydrologist and meteorologist for the Columbia River Inter-tribal Fish Commission. “It’s good for salmon. It’s good for hydropower.”
What’s more, he said the coldest and wettest weather could come between January and March and that an early runoff, in which snowmelt flows downriver well before it is in highest demand during summer months, is unlikely.
“I’m not seeing that at all,” he said in an interview.
He is predicting a January through July runoff of almost 116 million acre-feet as measured at The Dalles Dam. That’s 108 percent of normal.
And he went so far as to predict three snow events in the Portland area, including one large one that “might shut down the city.” That could entail other snowstorms elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest.
“It looks like we’re going to get a whopper,” Dittmer said. “It seems like we could get whacked in January.”
Forecasts called for milder weather this month before La Nia conditions begin to strengthen in December.
Parsons predicted more mild conditions throughout Eastern Washington but said there is a “very strong signal for a lot of mountain snow” with freezing levels dipping well below normal. He also indicated there may be an above average chance for flooding as that snow melts.
Dittmer, who incorporates the potential for sunspots to affect weather patterns by delivering more energy to Earth, reported the last time there were so few sunspots was just before 1997, which featured flooding across the Northwest.
“We’re seeing history repeat itself,” Dittmer said.
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Copyright (c) 2007, Tri-City Herald, Kennewick, Wash.
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