Immigrants Will Play Big Role in Projected U.S. Population Surge

By Dave Montgomery, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Texas

Feb. 12–WASHINGTON — The U.S. population will increase from 296 million to 438 million by the middle of the century, with immigrants and their U.S.-born children or grandchildren accounting for 82 percent of the growth, according to new projections of demographic trends.

The projections released Monday by the Pew Research Center predict that the share of immigrants in the U.S. population over the next four decades will surpass that of the last great wave of immigration in the early 1900s.

Of the estimated 117 million people who will be added to the population through 2050, the report said, 67 million will be immigrants and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren. In 2050, nearly 1 in 5 U.S. residents will be an immigrant, compared with 1 in 8 in 2005, the report said.

Latinos, already the largest and fastest-growing group, will account for much of the nation’s population growth, the report said, increasing from 42 million to 128 million. By 2050, Hispanics will constitute 29 percent of the population, compared with 14 percent in 2005.

By contrast, the number of Anglos will grow at a much slower rate of about 4 percent, from 199 million to 207 million. The percentage of Anglos in the population, researchers said, will drop to 47 percent by 2050, compared with 67 percent in 2005.

Pew researchers project that the number African-Americans will grow from 38 million to 59 million, to represent 13.4 percent of the population at midcentury, compared with 12.8 percent in 2005.

The report also projects substantial growth in the nation’s Asian population, which was 14 million in 2005. The number of Asians will nearly triple to 41 million, representing 9 percent of the U.S. population in 2050, compared with 5 percent in 2005.

The projections do not distinguish between legal and illegal immigrants, nor do they provide state-by-state breakdowns.

But the projected surge in Hispanic growth will likely have a impact in states that have already seen large a large influx of Latino migration over the past two decades.

Much of the recent Hispanic growth has been in the Midwest and Southeast, including Georgia and North and South Carolina. Pew researcher Jeffrey Passel, co-author of the report, said Hispanic growth in those regions will likely continue and expand.

The four states along the U.S.-Mexico border — Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California — also project further Hispanic growth.

Online: The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, people-press.org

Texas demographics

Anglos constitute 11.4 million, or 48.3 percent, of the state’s 23.5 million residents.

Hispanics number 8.3 million, or 35.7 percent.

The state’s 2.7 million blacks comprise 11.6 percent of the population.

Texas has 787,000 Asians, representing 3.3 percent of the population.

Other ethnic groups round out the population.

— Dave Montgomery

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