Study: Tangier Island Mostly Underwater By 2100

The National Wildlife Federation released a report today saying global warming poses devastating threats to the Chesapeake Bay and could drown half the estuary’s beaches and swamps by 2100.

The report released by the group composed of hunters, fishermen and conservationists, endorses the United Nation’s call to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent over the next 42 years.

But, even such a drastic response will not prevent some disruptions in the bay region, said Patty Glick, the federation’s senior global warming specialist. "Sea level rise is already underway and likely to continue . . . " she said yesterday.

Glick said the computer model the group used "is not a crystal ball," but provides what she calls the most comprehensive and detailed analysis to date on how global warming will affect the region.

The report predicts serious losses of land on Tangier and Smith islands within decades and predicts little will be left of them by 2100 if expected sea level increases of two feet are realized.

The group also forecast rising water in the Hampton Roads region could claim 20 percent of the area’s undeveloped lands and 80 percent of its ocean beaches.

J. Emmett Duffy, a professor at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, who also worked on the study, said warmer water temperatures are already imperiling eel grass beds that offer key habitat to the bay’s economically-important blue crab.

A massive die-off of eel grass in 2005 has been blamed on a sudden spike in water temperatures that summer.

Rising water temperatures will continue to stress eel grass beds and likely endanger other bay species that are at the southern edge of their range, such as winter flounder and soft-shelled clams, Duffy said.