More Active Hurricane Season Predicted For 2008
Posted on: Thursday, 7 August 2008, 16:15 CDT
The U.S. government's top climate agency predicted on Thursday the Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than forecasters first believed, with up to 10 hurricanes expected to form.
The 2008 season could produce between 14 and 18 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to six of them being classified as "major" hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
In May, the agency forecast 12 to 16 named storms this season, with six to nine developing into hurricanes. Two to five could be major ones of Category 3 or higher with winds above 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour).
Five tropical storms so far have generated in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season due to favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures and lingering effects from La Nina.
The above-average activity made July the third most active on record dating back to 1886, the agency said.
Bertha and Dolly each reached hurricane strength with winds in excess of 74 mph (119 kph) before fading over the open Atlantic and washing up on the shores of south Texas.
On Tuesday, Tropical Storm Edouard, came ashore on the upper Texas coast just below hurricane strength.
"We're still expecting a lot of activity," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "One of the key things that's critical is the fact that a couple of named storms have formed in the deep tropics and usually that's a very strong indicator that the season will be above normal."
An 85 percent probability of an above-normal season, up from 65 percent in May, has been projected by the NOAA.
The Colorado State University hurricane research team also raised its Atlantic forecast for this year saying it expected 17 tropical storms expected to form, and nine of them to strengthen into hurricanes.
NOAA said an average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 tropical storms with six hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. The hurricane season officially started on June 1 and typically peaks between late August and mid-October.
Another unpredictable development is either a La Nina or El Nino. La Nina generally results in conditions that favor hurricanes in the Atlantic while its opposite effect, El Nino, generates wind shear that makes it difficult for storms to stay together.
The most recent La Nina period has ended, but its effects are still being seen.
“Both conditions were neutral over the next few months, but after that it's a bit uncertain regarding the winter,” Bell said.
NOAA, university and other forecast groups predicted active seasons during the past few years, but they saw only little storm development. Only one minor storm reached the United States during the 2007 season and it escaped any impact in 2006.
During 2005, the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mexico, Caribbean and Central American countries were battered.
A record-breaking four major hurricanes hit the United States, including Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, killing around 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast and causing $80 billion in damage. The 2004 season saw Florida struck by four powerful hurricanes.
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Source: redOrbit Staff & Wire Reports
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