Ike’s Tremendous Size Poses Threat To Texas, Louisiana
Experts attribute Hurricane Ike’s projected storm surge inland to its large mass rather than its strength, meaning that residents of coastal Texas and Louisiana can expect more water and larger waves.
The National Hurricane Center also said that since coastal waters in Texas and Louisiana are so shallow, larger storm surges are expected. Storm surges are the primary killer in hurricanes.
Experts at the center expect a 20-foot surge for a large swath of Texas and the Louisiana coasts. Additionally, the center predicts "large and dangerous battering waves." Waves could be 50 feet tall, said hurricane center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen.
For experts, Ike is eerily similar to a 1900 hurricane that followed a similar track to Ike and killed at least 8,000 people – America’s deadliest storm.
"It’s a good recipe for surge," said Benton McGee, supervisory hydrologist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s storm surge center in Ruston, La.
"We’re already seeing water being piled up in the Gulf. On top of that you’re going to have water forced into the bays along the coast."
Some computer models have waves topping out at 70 feet, but the waves usually break well before hitting shore, so the maximum usually doesn’t get quite that high.
"It’s going to do tremendous damage over a large area even if its doesn’t strengthen anymore," predicted former hurricane center director Max Mayfield.
If Ike does deal a large amount of damage it will be because of its size. Experts are trying to figure out when they’ve seen a storm this wide. Ike’s tropical storm force winds stretch for 510 miles, and weather radar from Galveston to Key West can see its outer bands. That’s about 70 percent larger than an average hurricane.
"Because of the very large expanse of hurricane force winds, Ike will create a storm surge well in excess of what would normally be associated with a storm of its intensity," the National Hurricane Center warned late Thursday afternoon.
Another factor is geography. Experts say the Texas coast ranks second, behind Louisiana, as the worst region for storm surge in the United States. That’s because the water there is shallower than in most other regions. The energy from a hurricane needs a way to escape.
Houston is buffered by Galveston Island – which sits in the way of the surge – and the bay system, but still is likely to get a rush of high water as the bay, rivers and canals fill up, McGee said. And water that rushes into Galveston Bay may not be able to get out after the storm, he said.
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