US Population Growth Will Make 2050 Emission Cuts Hard

The United States will have a much harder time meeting goals for 2050 greenhouse gas emission cuts than Russia and a number of other wealthy countries that have decreasing populations, according to the results of a Reuters survey.

In July, those heading up the Group of Eight came to an agreement that they would make an expensive move to reduce emissions in developed nations by an average of 80 percent by 2050 by making the switch to renewable energies. They believe this goal could advance a U.N. climate treaty set to be drawn up in December.

However, if the goal takes effect in every nation, the citizens of Russia would be permitted to emit almost double the greenhouse gases of Americans in 2050, according to Reuters comparisons of emissions and U.N. Population Division projections.

"The biggest contrast is between the United States and the other industrialized countries. The demographic differences with Russia are stark," Brian O’Neill, a scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, said about the data.

"Some countries could say: ‘how come your emissions can be more than twice ours in a world where we’re all meant to be doing our fair share?" said O’Neill, who also works at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.

Considering the fact that population growth has been projected at almost 60 percent from 1990 to 2050, Americans will be required to share plummeting emissions rights among an ever increasing population.. A 20 percent population fall has been projection for Russia, which would take the edge off of the impact of the emission cuts.

If President Barack Obama reaches his target of an 80 percent reduction of nation emissions from 1990 and the population increases to 400 million by 2050, every American would put out 3 tons of greenhouse gases in 2050, which is down from 24 in 1990.

The projected 116 million Russians would emit 5.7 tons of greenhouse gases each year in 2050. Populations of Japan and Germany are also expected to decrease over the period.

The citizens of France would have the lowest level of emissions in 2050, at 1.7 tons, because their emissions were less than half Russian or U.S. levels in 1990. Italians would have 1.8 tons each, Britons 2.1, Japanese 2.5, Canadians 2.7 and Germans 3.4.

The EU nations are in agreement with Obama in wanting to slash emission levels by 80 percent of what they were in 1990, but the G8′s goal was not as specific as part of a global strategy to avoid natural disasters such as heat-waves, rising sea levels, floods, droughts and other powerful storms.

The projections also stated that reductions of at least 80 percent should be "in aggregate" for the rich and be "from 1990 or more recent years."

Climate research analyst Astrid Schulz at the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), said the data revealed the difficulties of working out balanced reductions.

"You can say that some countries have growing populations so they should have more rights to emit," she said.

"Or you might say that some have more need for heating, some have more need for cooling. One Russian suggestion was that you should also look at the distance between metropolitan areas to decide."

Greater distances between towns, like in Russia, translates to needing more for transport burning fossil fuels.

A study by WBGU suggests having a carbon dioxide "budget" for 2010-50 amounting to annual allowances of about 2.7 tons for everyone in the world. This would make it possible for countries to buy and sell quotas amongst themselves.

The G8 goals are not set in stone and could be altered in the future, noted O’Neill.

The G8 target has received plenty of criticism from less wealthy nations for leaving out mid-term 2020 goals more applicable for a U.N. climate treaty set to be agreed on in Copenhagen in December.

The most recent talks about the pact came to a close in Bangkok on Friday without making any significant breakthroughs about emissions. Developing nations are calling for the wealthy nations to cut by between 25 and 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.

The climate talks rarely hit on the issue of population, as many developing nations claim it interferes with development by imposing birth control.

Population growth in poor nations has often been exaggerated as a factor in emissions, according to David Satterthwaite, of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).

The global population is expected to jump to 9 billion by 2050 from about 6.8 billion now, which means there will be a much greater demand for energy, water and food. But a number of countries high population growth, such as in Africa, actually emit an extremely low level of greenhouse gas emissions.

"It’s consumption that drives dangerous climate change, not population," he said. "There is at most a weak link between population growth and rising emissions of greenhouse gases."