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China experts say population control vital for sustainable development

Posted on: Friday, 17 October 2003, 06:00 CDT

Chinese demographic experts have warned that any relaxation of China's population control policy could affect economic and social development and bring further harm to the environment. Wu Canping and Sun Juanjuan, from the Institute of Population Research at the Renmin University of China, wrote that the one-child policy was vital for rapid and sustainable development, raising the education level of the people and protecting the environment. The experts said that the degradation of China's environment had to a large degree been caused by over-population and poverty in the past. "...If the population is not effectively controlled, the pressure of population on the environment will not be relieved even if the economy grows. .... Protecting the ecological environment and implementing the strategy of sustainable development cannot be accomplished in a society flooded with illiteracy and eager for quick success and instant benefits." The experts, however, stressed that China must prepare for the formidable challenge of supporting an ageing population in the coming years. The following is the text of the article by Wu Cangping and Sun Juanjuan entitled: "Population policy and a period of historical opportunity" by Chinese magazine Qiushi (Seeking Truth) web site on 16 September; subheadings as published

The report of the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] 16th National Congress has pointed out: "The first 20 years of the 21st century for our nation is an important strategic period of opportunity that must be tightly grasped and during which much can be achieved." Judging from the population environment of our nation, this period is precisely the most favourable period for developing resources and accumulating wealth due to the sharp decline in birth rates. The rise of this period of opportunity is not due to chance, rather it is result of the fact that the CCP Central Committee during the past 20 to 30 years has always treated the population problem as "the key factor limiting our nation's economic and social development", and never wavered in controlling the population. Such a development opportunity brought about by the change in the population level and age structure has appeared and is still present in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and our Hong Kong and Taiwan. In our nation, this period of opportunity arrived during the beginning of this century and will persist for a while. We must grasp this opportunity and not let it slip away because a high population level is a fundamental national condition of our nation and the opportunity brought about by the changes in the population level and ageing structure is temporary and relative. We should point out that some comrades still lack a clear understanding regarding this historic opportunity created by our population policy. The reason is that they do not understand the strategic and fundamental nature of the population problem. Therefore, it is necessary to point out the timeliness and irreplaceable nature of this historic period of opportunity to awaken people so as to fully take advantage of this historical period of opportunity and realize the grand goal of constructing a well-off society [Chinese: xiao kang she hui] in an all-round way.

One. The effect of controlling the population level on raising our country's GDP should not be underestimated

Whether in Deng Xiaoping's "three steps" strategic goal of our nation's socialist modernization construction or the judgment of the CCP 16th National Congress regarding comprehensively reaching the well-off stage and constructing a well-off society, per capita GDP is an irreplaceable concrete indicator. [The "three steps" (Chinese: san bu zou): 1) Doubling the GNP of 2000, so that by 2010 people will have acquired an even more comfortable life and the country will have established a fairly sound socialist market economic system. 2) Working hard for another decade, so that by the CCP's centennial, the national economy will have further developed and various systems will have been improved. 3) By the middle of the 21st century when the People's Republic of China celebrates its centennial, basically realizing modernization and building China into a socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, and civilized.] The per capita GDP level is decided by the numerator, the size of the GDP and the speed of its growth, and the denominator, the size of the population and the speed of its growth. The "denominator", the population size, being too large has always been one factor limiting the growth of per capita GDP growth. Especially in the case where the "numerator" (GDP) is not clearly growing but the population size is growing quickly, the effect of the population in the denominator will become very prominent. For example, according to the latest statistics published by the World Bank, our total GDP has fallen to sixth place in the world. Our GDP ranking will advance if we use calculations based on purchasing power parity, but on per capita basis, our per capita GDP ranks 120th in the world, with a significant gap between us and middle- income nations.

Controlling population growth will help mitigate the effect of population in the denominator. Since the implementation of family planning, population size has been reduced by 300 million. If population size was not reduced by 300 million or if population size was reduced by 200 million instead, then calculation based on year 2000 GDP of 1 trillion dollars shows that our per capita GDP is less than 800 dollars, so we cannot speak of achieving the state of being comprehensively well-off.

Controlling the population is beneficial to the rapid growth of the "numerator", the GDP. Theoretically, in order to not affect economic growth or the standard of living of the existing population, under the condition of population growth, the government must reserve a portion of its total investment to invest in the population. Controlling the population size will reduce the investment in the population. Investment in the population will shrink as a proportion of total investment; this means investment towards production will increase, thereby benefiting economic growth. The investment in the population that has been saved as a result of our nation's 300 million reduction of population is considerable.

Controlling the population is beneficial to reducing the gap between our per capita GDP and that of major countries in the world. In the process of economic globalization, many large countries, including some large developing countries with high population levels, have become our important economic partners and competitors. Since our nation has achieved results in controlling population and is the first to achieve the substitution level in the birth rate, after the third decade of this century we will achieve zero-growth in population. Thereafter, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia and other developing nations will continue to experience inert growth for several decades. At the middle of this century, India will replace our nation as the most populous country in the world. At that time, our per capita GDP will increase not only due to economic growth but also due to zero population growth; we will bridge the gap not only with these countries but also with developed countries.

After reform and opening up, our economy has grown rapidly and achieved an average growth rate of 9.3 per cent during the 13 years between the fourth plenary session of the 13th CCP Central Committee and the CCP 16th National Congress; in the 21st century, the growth rate has remained above 7 per cent. Relative to rapid economic growth, the effect of the natural population growth rate of approximately one per cent on the growth of our per capita GDP is often overlooked. Thus, many people believe strictly controlling population growth has no greater purpose; this is very dangerous. Continuing to strictly control population size, stabilize the birth rate, and reduce as much as possible the effect of an excessive denominator on limiting per capita income growth is extremely significant in raising our nation's international status and competitiveness in the early 21st century.

Two. Controlling the population level and increasing population quality have a natural correlation

Controlling the population will certainly improve the health of the population. After implementing family planning, both the society and the households are paying more attention to infant health compared to the period before family planning. "Lower birth rate, better birth, and sound child rearing" are organically linked, infant and maternal mortality rates sharply declined, and the health of the new-born and their parents saw unprecedented improvement.

There is also natural correlation between population control and the improvement of population's scientific and educational levels. People commonly believe that improving the science and educational levels of the population must rely on the efforts of the culture, education, and science ministries. This is being aware of one aspect and ignorant of the other.

From the macro-angle, the reduction in the birth rate has created the most favourable conditions for raising the level of science education of the population. Education requires input. The level of per capita education investment by public finance authorities is directly influenced by the size of the population and the speed of population growth. Under the condition of a high population growth, the funding used for youth compulsory education is already "in straitened circumstances", and the funding used for improving the quality of education naturally will be limited. As the birth rate continues to fall, funding for public education will be better used to both provide compulsory education and improve the quality of education.

From the micro-perspective, the main beneficiaries of improvement in the quality of the population are the parents, mostly under the age of 50, who practice family planning and their offspring. Since China's economy and education are relatively backward, implementing family planning has caused the household size to be reduced; parents with young children can eliminate relatively heavy economic burdens and family responsibilities, and devote more expenditure to themselves and the education of their offspring, and they also have relatively abundant time and energy to participate in all types of education and training. This has provided a wide stage for popularizing nine-year compulsory education, expanding and popularizing secondary education, and popularizing higher education. The average education level of our population was 8.2 years in 1999 and grew to 11 years in 2000; the effect of family planning cannot be overlooked. Under the conditions prior to implementing family planning with annual population growth of more than 25 million, it would be very difficult to increase the scientific and educational level of the population this quickly given our nation's economic strength.

Three. Rapid decline in birth rate leads to larger labour force, lighter burdens, and international competitiveness

After implementing family planning, the birth rate in our country fell rapidly, and population ageing began to appear. In 2002, the time of the fifth population census, our nation had fewer than 300 million youths between the age of 0 and 14; the number of people over the age of 65 was 88 million; the number of people of employment age between 15 and 65 was 888 million, which was over 70 per cent of the total population and exceeded the sum of all developed countries' labour force population; our population dependency coefficient reached as low as 43, a low dependency ratio unprecedented in human history. During this period, the proportion of employment-age population was high while the proportion of youth and elderly was correspondingly low. Characterized by the saying "many were producing, few were consuming", this period is the golden period most beneficial to economic and social development. During this period, on the one hand due to the abundant supply of labour force and lower wages, if full employment can be achieved, society will create more wealth. On the other hand, due to the decrease in expenditure for education, benefits, insurance, and health care to the youth and the elderly population, it is beneficial for a society's wealth accumulation, savings, and investment.

The opportunity for development created by the population will arise only once for a country and a nation, and will gradually diminish as the elderly become a larger proportion of the total population. The growth of developed countries in Europe and the Americas during the second half of the 19th century benefited from a low dependency ratio and an abundant labour force. After the Second World War, the rapid economic growth in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China's Taiwan, and other newly industrialized nations and regions also occurred during a period when the aggregate population dependency coefficient rapidly declined. The above- mentioned countries and regions all took full advantage of the opportunity brought about by the changes in the population and laid the solid human and material foundation for national development. There are also counter-examples. Latin America, whose natural conditions and economic foundation were superior to East Asia, experienced a period of relatively high population growth after the war, but could not create a period of sustained, low dependency ratio, thus economic growth was much slower compared to the East Asian "Four Dragons".

Upon entering the 21st century, the situation of a low dependency ratio will persist for a while in our nation and reach the lowest point around 2010. Thereafter, even though the dependency ratio will increase slightly, it will remain relatively low and begin to increase after 2030, spanning a total of nearly 40 years. Even though this period of opportunity arose 20 years later than Japan and South Korea, our nation's population dependency in the next 20 years will still be far lower than that of Japan and comparable to that of South Korea and still possess a unique advantage. We should take advantage of this period when our nation has an abundant labour force, a low population dependency, low labour costs, and high labour quality to actively participate in international competition and prepare for future economic development as well as the construction of a well-off society in an all-round way.

Four. Controlling population growth has created an opportunity for our nation's ability to sustain growth

Controlling population growth, the conservation and use of natural resources, and protection of the ecological environment are the three fundamental national policies in which our nation has persisted for a long time, and the fundamental guarantees of sustainable development in our economy and society. After the momentum of high population growth has been effectively halted and the birth rate has reached substitution level, some comrades believe we should shift the focus of development more towards the conservation, use and protection of resources and the environment, and the effect of population on sustainable development is no longer a higher purpose. This understanding is erroneous in terms of theory and dangerous in terms of practice. Since population has always been at the core of sustainable development, it is precisely the growth of population and its demands that have led to the depletion of resources and the degradation of the environment. The reduction in birth rate, the changes in the population age structure, especially the improvement in the quality of the population, can effectively control and relieve the pressure on our nation's environment and resources and strengthen our nation's capability to sustain development.

The degradation of the ecological environment has natural as well as human causes. In our nation, the degradation of the ecological environment to a large degree was caused by over-population. Our per capita resources are low and economic development lagged. For a long time, people did not hesitate to pay the price of degrading the environment for the sake of survival. Activities such as excessive logging, destroying the forests and reclaiming wasteland, reclaiming wasteland on steep hills, reclaiming land from lakes, reclaiming land from grasslands, over-grazing, and depleting fishery resources are the root causes of soil erosion and desertification. Also for example, pollution in our major rivers, streams and other bodies of water and the pollution of waste gas, water, and industrial residue in townships and villages originated from small hardware, cement, brick, and paper manufacturing enterprises. These small enterprises lack capital, advanced equipment, and environmental protection infrastructure; yet, they can absorb a large amount of labour and have become a chronic illness in many localities. Under our national conditions, if the population is not effectively controlled, the pressure of population on the environment will not be relieved even if the economy grows. Therefore, the decline in the birth rate has become an important precondition for realizing ecological construction and environmental protection.

Protecting the ecological environment and implementing the strategy of sustainable development cannot be accomplished in a society flooded with illiteracy and eager for quick success and instant benefits. Controlling the population is beneficial to the development of education, the improvement of the scientific and educational level of the population, and for raising people's awareness for environmental protection, and has created the most fundamental condition for implementing the strategy of sustainable development.

Five. Thinking of danger in times of peace, take a dialectical view of the challenges posed by the population problem for development

The policy of strictly controlling the population has created a rare historical opportunity for our nation's economic and social development. At the same time, it has also brought formidable challenges that are most prominently manifested in the area of population ageing.

Controlling population growth will certainly accelerate population ageing; this is a dilemma in population policy. In order to eliminate the pressure of a high population and lift our country from the state of "poverty and blankness", China chose the strategy of strictly limiting population growth and accelerating economic development. Thus, China cannot avoid the historical inevitability of "ageing before becoming wealthy". How formidable the challenge of population ageing is to our nation's economic and social development must be evaluated in terms of international comparisons. Compared to population ageing in the United States and Japan, population ageing in our country is not the fastest or the highest. Overall, population ageing in our country is much lower than that of Japan and comparable to that of the United States. According to forecast by the World Bank, in 2025, 13.2 per cent of our population will be 65 years of age or older, which is lower than 18.5 per cent for the United States and far lower than the nearly 30 per cent for Japan. Judging from the dependency index of China, United States, Japan, and India, from the beginning to the middle of this century, our dependency index will be lower than that of the United States and Japan and higher than that of India only after 2025. In other words, our aggregate dependency index will remain low for a considerable period.

Overall, the challenge brought about by the beginning of population ageing is not prominent. We must immediately begin to pay serious attention to population ageing, make the material, spiritual, theoretical, legal, moral and ethical, institutional, scientific, and human capital preparations for facing the ageing of the population without missing the period of opportunity, and avoid repeating the mistakes in population policy.

Looking back on the history of our nation's population and economic and social development and looking ahead to the great opportunities provided by the population for our nation's attempt to construct a well-off society in an all-round way, we can see that the population development strategies of our government are sensible and conform to the trend of historical development. Currently, we must promptly and tightly grasp the historical opportunity created by the decrease in population and the change in the age structure, construct a well-off society in an all-round way as proposed by the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] 16th National Congress, and accelerate the promotion of the grand goal of socialist modernization.

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