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Technology Has Made Hurricane Forecasting More Accurate

Posted on: Thursday, 1 September 2005, 00:00 CDT

Aug. 31--Hurricane forecasts have become so accurate in the past few years that people matter-of-factly accept that as the norm.

Advertisement But just a decade or so ago that wasn't the case. A hurricane like Katrina barreling into the Gulf of Mexico on a westward trek in 1990 would have had people along the Texas Gulf Coast jittery -- and probably with good reason.

The public forecasts for hurricanes back then covered only the first three days instead of the five-day period covered today. And even then the confidence was low for a prediction made 72 hours out.

"There has been a lot of improvement since then and I think there's going to be a lot more," said Meteorologist-in-Charge Armando Garza with the National Weather Service office in Corpus Christi.

He said meteorologists are constantly refining the forecast procedure and have been successful because of the advances in technology in general.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent agency for the weather service, released a report showing just how much progress has been made. It states that the two-day track forecasts for hurricanes have improved by 43 percent since 1990.

They have shaved nearly 200 miles off the average 48-hour forecast error since 1970 and just more than 90 miles off the same forecast since 1990.

The numbers for the average 72-hour forecast are even more impressive, with the average error dropping about 330 miles since 1970 and 150 miles since 1990.

To put that into perspective, the Texas Coast is 367 miles long.

"They are basically fine-tuning the computer models," Garza said. "The way they fine-tune them is by ingesting more data."

He said two of the most important sources of information are weather satellites and hurricane hunter aircraft that gather more weather information than ever before. Garza said that helps make up for the lack of weather stations over the water.

Victoria Fire Chief Vance Riley said he personally has seen a significant improvement in the hurricane track forecast and he thinks everyone benefits from that. He said, for instance, that 15 years ago part of the upper Texas Coast would probably have been under a hurricane watch with the approach of Katrina.

That would have meant industrial plants shutting down operations, people boarding up homes and businesses and possibly even the evacuation of some people. Those could all be costly propositions, but they weren't necessary with the improved forecasts.

David Martyn, the Victoria County emergency management coordinator, said not only are the forecasts more accurate, but they are also more readily available because of things like the Internet. "There's been so much technology in the last 10 or 15 years."

Despite the improved forecasts, officials agreed it's never a good idea to ignore a storm in the gulf, even if the forecasts indicate it won't be a threat.

"No matter how good they get at it, there's always a possibility a storm is not going to do what they think it's going to do," Martyn said. "There's still so much uncertainty built into these things."

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Copyright (c) 2005, Victoria Advocate, Texas

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Source: Victoria Advocate, Victoria, Texas

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