$3 Gas Barely Budging Driver Habits

By Mark Schwanhausser, San Jose Mercury News, Calif.

Sep. 27–John Cherniavsky has engineered a bus-to-train-to-bike commute to work, racing each morning to catch the train in the three-minute window after his bus hits the station.

Jerry Martinez and his wife leave their gas-guzzling Suburban at home in Tracy and drive to their Bay Area jobs in gas-sipping sedans.

Greg Heibel has put off buying an SUV so he can kick the tires on more fuel-efficient vehicles big enough for his growing family.

But despite pain in the pocketbook from soaring gas prices, it’s too soon for most middle-income Americans to give up their low-mileage Yukons, sell their Central Valley homes to move closer to work or otherwise radically change their commuter way of life.

It might take years of much higher gas prices to dramatically change the behavior of middle-income or affluent Americans, experts say. In short, $3 gas might make them mad as hell, but they’re far from reaching the point where they won’t take it anymore.

“The tipping point won’t come after two to three months over $3 or even two to three months over $4. It will come after two to three years consistently over $4,” said Larry Cohen, who studies consumers’ financial decisions for SRI Consulting Business Intelligence in Princeton, N.J.

Americans are likely to cope with rising gas prices by spending less at the grocery, the mall and on vacation. While lower-income Americans might have to choose between gas and meat, milk or bread, more affluent drivers might only have to pass up a few lattes a week.

“It’s not like this is a gigantic change in the cost per mile of driving your car,” said Severin Borenstein, director of the University of California’s Energy Institute. “That’s why you won’t see many people get rid of their cars or suddenly decide they can’t drive to work anymore or will take the subway or whatever.”

One way to spend less on gas is to burn less of it — and Americans will be more willing to try all sorts of tactics as gas prices rise. Some changes will be easier than others. It’s little trouble to properly inflate tires and tune engines to improve fuel efficiency. It’s more of a sacrifice to drive less or drive slower.

The 511 Regional Rideshare program, which helps workers find carpool partners, recorded an uptick in visits at its Web site (www.511.org) after Hurricane Katrina. More than 8,700 workers caught Sun Microsystems shuttle buses to work in August, up from 7,700 in January. Hits on Sun’s commuter Web site also have doubled, a spokeswoman said.

But comparatively few workers will be willing to join a carpool, take mass transit or park the car in the driveway and telecommute from home.

“I don’t think the majority of people have hit the tipping point,” said Susan Gluss, spokeswoman for the 511 Rideshare program.

Cherniavsky, 29, is an exception. Hoping to ease fuel shortages in the South after the aftermath of Katrina, he committed himself to a Rube Goldberg-style commute that cobbles together rides on a bus, a train and a bike to get from his home in Willow Glen to his job at Net Suite in San Mateo.

“It’s not that I think I can get by without a car, it’s just that I can use it less,” the software engineer said. Besides, he jokes, “I’d rather give my money to Caltrain and the VTA than the oil companies and Saudis.”

But most commuters can’t — or aren’t yet willing — to rely on mass transit, experts say.

Scott McDonald, who moved to Davis so his wife could find work, has experimented with a train-to-BART-to-bike commute. But scarred by return trips that stretched out three to four hours, he doesn’t see a practical alternative to driving his four-cylinder Honda Civic on the 102-mile round-trip from his home in Davis to his job in Foster City.

“I’m more or less stuck,” said McDonald, 52.

Choosing a more fuel-efficient car is another way Americans are expected to conserve. That will be a gradual process that will play out as consumers trade in their current cars. With Toyota Priuses selling as fast as they come off the assembly line, carmakers are rushing to develop hybrids in a variety of shapes, from compacts to SUVs.

“It hasn’t rocked the nation in a dramatic sense yet,” said Lonnie Miller, director of the Polk Center for Automotive Studies in Southfield, Mich. “If we continue at this pace with gas, I think we will see some truly radical buying shifts, more so than what we saw this summer. We have just bumped into the iceberg.”

A Polk survey in July indicated that more than four of five consumers said they would consider buying or leasing a hybrid car or truck the next time they’re in the market. Polk also says car sales in May indicate buyers are downsizing. Rather than abandoning SUVs, they’re driving off in mid-size versions rather than the giants, or opting for more fuel-efficient two-wheel drives instead of four-wheel-drive versions.

Tired of heaving their 1-year-old into Honda and Acura sedans, Greg Heibel and his wife were on the brink of buying an SUV as a family car. Then gas hit the $3 range — spurring him to consider SUVs that are a “little less thirsty.”

“With gas at $3.29, I’m not sure I want to have $100 fill-ups,” the Fremont man said.

Buying more fuel-efficient cars doesn’t mean Americans will necessarily drive any less, however. Americans have a lengthy list of reasons for hopping behind the wheel, says Patricia L. Mokhtarian, a professor at the University of California-Davis who studies travel behavior.

Cars represent adventure, independence, a cure for cabin fever, even a status symbol. And contrary to all those gripes about commuting you hear, about half the drivers in one Bay Area survey actually were satisfied with their commute, she says.

Many Americans will resist driving less because they log a lot of miles by choice, not necessity. Nearly a fourth of the miles were logged for recreational excursions or to visit friends and relatives, according to a study she co-wrote last year.

“One person’s necessity is another person’s frivolity,” Mokhtarian said. “In my own mind it will take something very drastic in order for us to see a major shift in the amount of travel.”

Mercury News Staff Writer Therese Poletti contributed to this report.

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