Next human pandemic “inevitable,” says U.S. scientist

By Darren Schuettler

HAIPHONG, Vietnam (Reuters) – The next human pandemic is
“inevitable” and the world must prepare now against bird flu
and other potentially deadly viruses, a top U.S. government
scientist said on Saturday.

“It’s been over 30 years since we’ve had a pandemic, so
inevitably we are going to have a pandemic within a reasonable
period of time,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“It’s not a matter of when or if,” he told reporters in
Vietnam, where 41 people have died from the H5N1 virus that has
now spread to Europe.

Fauci, part of a U.S. mission to Southeast Asian nations
worst hit by the virus — which has killed more than 60 people
in Asia since 2003 — said H5N1 was becoming more worrisome.

Test results on Saturday detected the highly pathogenic
virus in Romania and confirmed its arrival in mainland Europe.

The virus was found last week in Turkey and experts say
migratory birds may carry the disease farther.

“We as public health officials … must assume the
worst-case scenario and H5N1 is now giving us a lot of signs
that is becoming a little more worrisome, if not a lot a more
worrisome, because of the events that are going on,” Fauci
said.

Experts fear H5N1 could mutate into a virus that spreads
easily among humans, triggering a pandemic that might kill
millions. But another strain could set it off due to the
evolving nature of influenza viruses.

“That’s why we are preparing so intensely for H5N1 as well
as any other pandemic,” said Fauci, an adviser to the White
House on AIDS issues and on preparing communities against
possible biological attacks.

Led by Health Secretary Mike Leavitt, top U.S. and U.N.
health experts toured poultry farms, markets and discussed
pandemic preparedness plans with officials in Thailand,
Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam this week.

The United States has pledged $25 million in training and
equipment for a regional surveillance network in the hope of
containing a human outbreak before it spreads.

Other rich nations have pledged funds, but the World Health
Organization said on Friday Southeast Asia needs $260 million
to fight bird flu in the short term.

FOREST FIRE

Leavitt, who traveled to the port city of Haiphong on
Saturday where he met a Vietnamese man who survived the H5N1
virus, compared the bird flu threat to stamping out a forest
fire before it raged out of control.

“If our surveillance is good enough and we can be there and
we can get there before it has a chance to spread, it’s a great
strategy,” he said. “The chances of that happening are not
good.”

Thailand and Vietnam have had some success in containing
the virus with culling and vaccination, but have not wiped it
out.

The picture is more bleak in Cambodia and Laos where
experts fear a lack of resources and infrastructure could see a
human outbreak go undetected until it was too late.

The spread of the virus has also been blamed on backyard
farms and open-air markets where humans and birds often mingle
in unsanitary conditions.

Leavitt, who saw chickens and ducks cut up and sold at a
street market in Hanoi on Saturday, said age-old behaviors may
be the toughest to overcome.

“It’s evident that the interaction between birds and people
and animals is a significant part of this culture. I don’t
think we’ll change that,” he said.