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Wilma May Cause High Crop Prices Across the Nation

Posted on: Friday, 21 October 2005, 03:01 CDT

By The Sacramento Bee, Calif.

Oct. 21--Brace yourself for higher produce prices, courtesy of Hurricane Wilma.

Florida's citrus and winter vegetable farmers, already reeling from last year's storms, are steeling themselves for another round of pounding as the hurricane bears down on their orchards and fields.

In California, farmers say it will have little impact on the state's citrus demand. Still, consumers here and across the country could see lower quality and higher prices for everything from orange juice to eggplant in the months ahead as supply falls and holiday season demand rises.

"Agriculture is an Alice-in-Wonderland industry," said Michael Marks, a Sacramento-based marketing director for FreshPoint Inc., one of the nation's largest fruit and vegetables distributors. "Pay a lot for a car, you should get a nice car. Pay a lot for, say, a tomato, you get poor quality and a shorter shelf life."

During a shortage, some crops that normally don't make it to market sell at a premium, Marks said, and Wilma has the potential to lay waste to some of the nation's most fertile cropland just as it is about to be harvested.

Of particular concern is Florida's Miami-Dade County, the nation's largest winter vegetable producer and the cornerstone of the state's $62 billion agriculture industry. The region's moderate temperatures and soils grow bell peppers, cucumbers, eggplant, green beans, squash and tomatoes for the eastern half of the country during the coldest months of the year.

A hit to that already-tender region will create an economic ripple throughout the agriculture industry and push up prices for West Coast produce.

"Consumers are going to notice that the quality of the produce isn't as good and that they're paying more for it," Marks said.

Tim Chelling, spokesman for Irvine-based Western Growers Association, a produce growers industry group, said the effect on California growers is "yet to be determined."

He added: "I know there was a change in the market favorable to western growers when tomato crops were severely damaged last year. Hopefully, no one will be hurt and there's no damage."

California's fresh market tomato growers greatly benefited from Florida's weather last year. Prices went from $8 a box to $20, a "huge upswing in prices," said Ross Siragusa, president and chief executive of the Stockton-based California Tomato Growers Association.

He said Florida's hurricanes came as rains curbed the size of California's crop and Mexico also imported tomatoes from California instead of exporting them to the state.

"This year we're not going to have two of those issues," Siragusa said.

While Wilma could push up the price of California's row crops, Sherman Oaks-based Sunkist Growers Inc. reported Thursday that Florida's problems will have little effect on California orange growers. The state's 177,464-acre orange crop is largely anchored in the southern San Joaquin Valley.

"The bulk of fruit in Florida is juice. The bulk of our fruit is fresh. It's really two different markets and won't have that much effect," said Claire H. Smith, spokeswoman for the 6,000-grower cooperative.

Consumers may see a rise in orange juice prices, however.

Though Thursday's orange juice futures price closed down 1 cent at $1.108 per pound, it has climbed nearly 20 percent since early September on reports of another short year for Florida growers.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast an unusually small 2005 crop in Florida due to citrus canker disease, a withering bacterial blight that can be spread by wind and rain. Still, the government expected this year's crop to be 27 percent bigger than 2004's hurricane-ravaged crop.

Florida citrus growers are fretting that Wilma could deal the Sunshine State's $9.1 billion citrus industry another blow by spreading canker disease. Since last year's storm season, the state has lost 65,000 acres due to canker, said Casey Pace, a spokeswoman for the Florida Citrus Mutual growers' group.

Citrus industry officials say imports from Brazil and Mexico have increasingly come to fill the gap during short years. Sunkist's Smith said juice prices suffered until recently from oversupply. She predicted another small crop in Florida may help "bring supply more in line with demand."

California's fresh orange harvest, which begins the second week of November, is expected to decline 10 percent from last season because of smaller-sized fruit, the California Agricultural Statistics Service reported this month. Growers are also pulling out trees because of market pressures.

Florida's agriculture industry has fared well so far this hurricane season and growers were optimistic until Wilma developed. Citrus growers expected to produce 190million boxes of oranges during the growing season. Each box of oranges from Florida, the nation's largest citrus producer, holds about 90 pounds of fruit.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture also predicted that Florida would produce 24 million boxes of grapefruit, almost double the size of last year's crop, which was the smallest since the 1935-1936 season. Each grapefruit box holds about 85 pounds of fruit.

Those estimates could change after Wilma churns across the state.

"If the hurricane comes across the forecast path, it's going to hit a lot of the citrus industry in southwest Florida. It's going to ruin their crop for this year, which will totally change the forecast for orange juice," Florida Agriculture and Consumer Services Commissioner Charles Bronson said Thursday. "Sometimes Mother Nature decides to throw a curveball."

By Jon Ortiz and Jim Wasserman. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Copyright (c) 2005, The Sacramento Bee, Calif.

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Source: The Sacramento Bee

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