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Huge Tsunami Could Hit North Japan in Quake Scenario

Posted on: Sunday, 22 January 2006, 01:40 CST

TOKYO -- A major quake striking northeastern Japan could set off a 22-meter tsunami, kill nearly 3,000 people and cause more than a trillion yen in damage, according to a worst-case government scenario, Kyodo news agency said on Sunday.

The scenario was one of eight pulled together by the government's Central Disaster Prevention Council in a report due out on Wednesday.

Japan is one of the world's most seismically active areas and accounts for about 20 percent of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater. A 6.8 magnitude quake that struck the northern Niigata region in 2004 killed more than 40 people.

According to the study, which centred on the Tohoku region of northeastern Japan as well as the east coast of the northernmost island of Hokkaido, around 2,700 people would be killed and some 9,400 buildings destroyed in a worst-case scenario, Kyodo quoted the report as saying.

The same scenario would result in 1.3 trillion yen ($11.25 billion) in damages.

No estimated magnitudes were given by Kyodo, but the area surrounding the city of Sendai, around 450 km (280 miles) north of Tokyo and at the center of the region in the study, is hit by powerful -- and deadly -- earthquakes every 30 to 40 years. The last such quake struck in 1978, killing 28 people.

Last August, the Sendai area was rocked by a 7.2 magnitude quake. Some 59 people were injured and 200 houses damaged.

Northeastern Japan would get off comparatively lightly, however.

Last year, the Tokyo metropolitan government said that an earthquake in Tokyo of around 7.3 in magnitude would probably kill 11,000 people and cause more than $1 trillion in economic damage.

Japan's worst recent quake was in 1995, when the western port city of Kobe was stuck by a 7.3 magnitude quake that killed more than 6,400.

($1=115.53 Yen)

Source: REUTERS

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