San Bernardino County Sun, Calif., Jim Steinberg Column
By Jim Steinberg, San Bernardino County Sun, Calif.
Jan. 22–COUNTY HOUSING MARKET HAS ANOTHER EXTRAORDINARY YEAR: In terms of home price appreciation, last year was king.
We all thought 2004 was an extraordinary year for San Bernardino County — and it was. The county’s median house price of $249,000 was 27 percent higher than the year before.
But last year’s annualized median house price of $327,000 was 31.3 percent higher than 2004, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
With the median home price up by $78,000 in a year, one might think that the number of homes sold would be dwindling. Last year, 48,433 new and existing homes sold, which is up 2.4 percent from the 47,302 homes that sold in 2004.
But it was the slowest annual percentage increase since 1995.
So from that perspective, the market is cooling.
Although discussions about housing prices are common at dinner tables across the region, it wasn’t until 2003 that San Bernardino County’s housing market became exciting.
In 2002, the $161,000 median price was 9.5 percent higher than 2001.
But then the really big bump-ups in price occurred.
The $196,000 median in 2003 was 21.7 percent higher than 2002.
San Bernardino County was the last county in Southern California to see a recovery in housing prices.
And it will be the last one to slow down, experts say.
Look for things to slow this year. Will the slowing occur in the first part of the year or later on? And just how much will it slow? Stay tuned.
WILL WE SEE A GOLDEN BULL?
Another hot commodity last year was gold.
In the past 30 days, the price of gold has increased 13.5 percent and it is up 32 percent in a 12-month period, said Gerald Celente, editor of The Trends Journal.
Since December 2001, when gold was trading at $275 per ounce, New York-based Celente has been predicting a big move in gold prices.
In late 2004, Celente said an upward momentum for gold would be a top trend in 2005.
On Friday an ounce of gold increased $7.05 to $559.25.
“Gold could hit $1,000 in the blink of an eye,” Celente said in an interview last week.
There are three major wild cards out there that could make this happen, he said.
–Keep your eye on the dollar.
China has announced it is beginning to shift foreign currency away from U.S. Treasury bills and dollar-dominated assets and into other currencies, Celente said.
If the dollar collapses, gold will go through roof, he said.
–Another domestic terrorism attack could send gold skyrocketing.
Recall that late last year the former chairman and vice chairman of the 9/11 Commission warned that the nation was ill-prepared for a new terrorist strike.
“It’s not a question of if,” said Vice Chairman Lee Hamilton, a Democrat.
Last week, Osma bin Ladden warned Americans that al-Qaida was planning more attacks on the United States.
–The third wild card, Celente said, is the Middle East. Think Iran’s nuclear threat and what the United States might do about it.
But there’s also the larger Middle East turmoil. Something nasty could happen on a non-Iranian front.
In the 1970s gold boom, people were acquiring the yellow metal for survivalist reasons.
Now it’s more an issue of portfolio diversification, Celente said.
I’m hoping none of those wild cards come into play and gold hovers about where it is.
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