Scientist Says Evolution ‘Predictable’

A University of California scientist says evolution is so predictable, if life were to repeat itself, it would have a similar plot and outcomes.

Evolution … like the rest of history is predictable, perhaps more predictable than people want to imagine, UC-Davis paleontologist Geerat Vermeij says. Many traits are so advantageous under so many circumstances that you are likely to see the same things again and again.

Vermeij argues some innovations, such as photosynthesis, plant seeds and even human language are just such good ideas, they would reappear, although at different times and in somewhat different forms.

Vermeij reviewed 23 evolutionary innovations thought to be unique, including the genetic code, sex, human language and feathers and another 55 that turn up repeatedly. Most of the unique innovations — with the exception of human language — are more than 500 million years old. Many of the repeated innovations are known only from a few specimens that were part of much larger groups.

If we had an Earth-like planet, I think we’d see phenotypes and outcomes that parallel those on Earth, he said.

His research appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.