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Kansas Farmers Say Wheat Yields May Be Low Without More Rain

Posted on: Friday, 3 March 2006, 00:00 CST

By Tim Unruh, The Salina Journal, Kan.

Mar. 2--Duane Flaherty says his wheat is in "fair" condition, but he also says the crop soon will suffer without rain and cooler temperatures.

At that, the northwest Saline County farmer might be in a better situation than farmers in other parts of Kansas and the nation's grain belt.

"We've got a very serious situation on our hands," Flaherty said, referring to unseasonably warm and dry weather. "To be in as good of a shape as we are, we're very fortunate."

Virtually no moisture -- just a trace in February -- has left the surface powder-dry.

Making the situation worse is 80-degree temperatures that signal the wheat to emerge from dormancy.

The crop here is green and growing, but it won't last long, district agricultural Extension agent Tom Maxwell said. When the dormant plants begin to grow they need moisture.

"We need rain now," he said. "If we don't get moisture in two weeks, then we're losing yield."

Most at risk is double-cropped wheat, which is planted after fall crops are harvested. Wheat is normally planted in September; double-cropped wheat is planted later in the fall and doesn't have as much time to develop foliage.

The mild and dry winter, Maxwell said, "has definitely impacted yield on double-crop wheat. If we get a rain, we're still in the ballgame."

A possibility of rain exists in the Salina area this weekend. Mary Knapp, state climatologist in Manhattan, says the chance of rain is only 40 percent, but that's the highest probability in three weeks.

"It's just been a really bad year," she said. "I'm holding my breath and my fingers and toes are crossed that we will get some (rain) this weekend."

December through February historically is dry, said Tom Ryan, a Solomon-area farmer. Rain is more likely in March.

"If we could catch a rain in the next couple weeks, it would probably be all right," he said.

One bright side to the weather worries is that the concern has pushed the price of wheat higher.

The closing price Wednesday of $4.323/4 a bushel at the Cargill Ag Horizons terminal, 1112 N. Halstead, is about 70 cents a bushel higher than was posted a year ago.

Flaherty is forward-contracting some of his wheat, which locks in a price based on the futures price. Tuesday, he said, the futures price hit a 91/2-year high of $4.56 a bushel.

"There's a tremendous opportunity. We can't let these kinds of prices slip away from us," he said.

If conditions remain dry, Flaherty said, he might not plant spring crops.

"The number one reason is that fertilizer and fuel are so high," he said. "We'll adjust our acreages once we see how much moisture we get."

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Copyright (c) 2006, The Salina Journal, Kan.

Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.

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Source: The Salina Journal

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