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Revised Jobs Data Show Big Gains: Tulsa Area 2005 Job Growth Was Raised From 1 Percent to 3.2 Percent.

Posted on: Friday, 24 March 2006, 09:00 CST

By Laurie Winslow, Tulsa World, Okla.

Mar. 24--Large revisions to state job data show that Tulsa, Oklahoma City and the state added more jobs last year than first believed. An updated report from an economist at Oklahoma State University reinforces data released last week by the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. The largest gain occurred in the Tulsa metropolitan area, where 2005 job growth was raised from 1.0 percent to more than 3.2 percent, according to the OSU report. "Tulsa is not only showing rebound-like recovery, but it's showing almost phenomenal bounce-back, make-up-for-lost-time-type recovery," said Mark Snead, an OSU economist, in a phone interview Thursday. "That really shows the attractiveness of the Tulsa area," he said. "I think people were actually convinced that Tulsa would dry up and blow away, but that doesn't reflect the attractiveness of the Tulsa market." For 2005, Tulsa had an annual average of 411,817 nonfarm jobs. That was almost 9,400 more than the original estimate, according to revised data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The revision increased Tulsa's 2004 total by nearly 600 jobs. Job growth rates in the most recent 12 months for the Tulsa are running around 4 percent, according to the OSU report. "Large metropolitan areas just aren't stagnant unless there's something holding them back," Snead said. "Their normal activity is growth, and rapid growth. "We had these set of factors that held Tulsa back for a few years, and now what you're seeing is rebound back to normal conditions. "This is normal -- this is not unusual. This is what you would expect from a vibrant metro area like Tulsa."

Oklahoma is finally seeing the growth that all the other states have enjoyed for years, he said. "People should be prepared to change their image of Oklahoma." Snead added, "There's no reason to believe that Tulsa or Oklahoma City or the state as whole would underperform the nation. We're very national-like, and we should have every expectation that we benefit to the degree that many other areas are." Revised data also show that Oklahoma picked up tremendous momentum and accelerated well beyond the national growth rate in 2005, according to the OSU report. Oklahoma had a revised annual average of 1.51 million nonfarm jobs last year. That was nearly 14,200 more than the original estimate. The state's revised growth rate for 2005 jumped to an impressive 2.49 percent compared with 1.55 percent for the nation, according to the report. The large upward revisions are consistent with the strength in both the income and sales tax revenue streams at the state level, the OSU report states. Explaining reasons for the large revisions, Snead said the data models that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics requires states to use don't work particularly well in Oklahoma or other small states. "They have made changes to the program, and they think revisions will be smaller over time," he said. The models being used may not be picking up the boost from the energy industry that Oklahoma has been getting, Snead added. The revised government figures probably will change OSU's forecast as well, but Snead said he does not know by how much. For now, his forecast calls for Tulsa to add 8,000 jobs this year, up from an earlier forecast of 6,800 new jobs. Laurie Winslow 581-8466 laurie.winslow@tulsaworld.com

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Copyright (c) 2006, Tulsa World, Okla.

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Source: Tulsa World

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