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Hurricane Victims Vulnerable to New Storms

Posted on: Friday, 14 April 2006, 10:05 CDT

By Jim Loney

ORLANDO, Florida -- Across the U.S. Gulf Coast, 100,000 families that had proper homes last year are living in flimsy travel trailers and mobile homes as this year's hurricane season approaches.

Just months removed from a nightmarish hurricane season that caused more than $100 billion in damage, crushed the city of New Orleans and killed some 1,400 people, the U.S. East and Gulf coasts may be in a precarious state facing a new season that could be nearly as destructive as the last.

Millions could also be suffering from "storm fatigue" -- a weariness of evacuations that could keep them in their homes in a danger zone when they should be fleeing.

Coupled with uncertainty about the U.S. government's ability to cope with another big natural disaster, emergency managers see some worrying signs with the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season just seven weeks away.

One of the most troubling issues is the dicey condition of last year's victims. The Federal Emergency Management Agency says as many as 300,000 victims of Katrina, Rita and other storms are still living in flimsy government-supplied temporary housing.

"They are going to have to evacuate these travel trailers and mobile homes," acting FEMA Director David Paulison said at this week's National Hurricane Conference, where he sought to assure disaster managers that his agency will be ready.

But he and other managers readily admit that many of the 55 million people who live on the hurricane-prone East and Gulf coasts will feel storm fatigue.

"Everybody's worried. All of us are tired," he said. "What we can't become is complacent. If an evacuation order is given, they've got to get out."

In the Florida Keys, the fragile 110-mile (180-km)-long chain of islands off the state's southern tip, officials saw signs of that weariness last autumn. Residents who were ordered to evacuate six times in a two-year span had had enough, and stayed home, when Wilma roared through.

"I think people understood the danger, but they decided to stay because they were worn out," said Billy Wagner, the top emergency manager for the islands.

FEMA said it is working with local agencies to make sure last year's storm victims living in trailers have evacuation routes mapped out.

FORECASTING ERRORS

But many local emergency managers are skeptical about FEMA, which took the brunt of criticism when Katrina killed 1,300 people and left tens of thousands stranded, waiting for rescue, food and shelter.

Officials from coastal counties have pleaded with Washington to separate FEMA from the Department of Homeland Security, which took it over after the September 11 attacks. They say FEMA was stripped of its disaster expertise as Homeland Security focused on the war against terrorism.

"I think the plea is falling on deaf ears," said Don McKinnon, an emergency manager from Mississippi.

Despite the wealth and technical expertise of the United States, forecasters admit they still don't know enough about hurricanes. They say errors in their track forecasts have been cut in half in the last 15 years but there has been no improvement in predicting a storm's intensity.

"If you have a hurricane that deepens in intensity just before landfall, it's a nightmare," said Lixion Avila, a U.S. National Hurricane Center specialist. "Extreme events are almost never forecast."

Yet many residents seem to believe the United States is too sophisticated to lose hundreds of people to a hurricane, said Craig Fugate, Florida's emergency management chief.

"I think there is a tendency to think that can't happen in the United States," he said. "I think Katrina demonstrated once and for all that even in the 21st century, these storms are deadly and at your own peril do you choose to stay behind and take a chance that you're smarter than the forecast."

Source: REUTERS

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