Hay Prices Might Go Up
Posted on: Wednesday, 3 May 2006, 15:00 CDT
By Anna King, Tri-City Herald, Kennewick, Wash.
May 3--Last year's drought and record rains in California this spring could increase the demand for Mid-Columbia farmers' alfalfa and timothy.
Tri-City-area farmers started cutting alfalfa recently, but experts say it's dicey to count any profits until the hay is bailed because of weather and market conditions.
Jeff Calaway, owner of Ellensburg-based Calaway Trading, said there isn't much hay left from last year. But he said there could be too much hay this year because more farmers have planted alfalfa and timothy, and precipitation has been timely.
"It's definitely a market that could be oversupplied this year," he said. "A really good situation for farmers would be a little rain, but not on their crop."
Calaway said he plans to ship tons of alfalfa this year to Asia to feed dairy cattle.
Jim Eckenberg, a Mattawa-area farmer, said his crop is growing well so far this season. But he said Pacific Northwest dairymen who buy the bulk of Washington's hay are having a difficult year with low milk prices.
Typically, that means dairy operators try to buy a little lower-grade feed to save money, he said.
Tim Woodward, Pasco-based extension agronomist for Washington State University, said prices should stay fairly high for most of the season until supply catches up with demand.
Woodward said Idaho has seen growth in its dairy industry. And that means more of that state's hay growers will sell to local dairies instead of shipping hay into Washington's market.
Last year, growers in Washington harvested about 740,000 acres of hay yielding 3.2 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This year, growers are expected to harvest about 780,000 acres of hay.
But what farmers will earn for their crop still is unknown. High-quality export hay can be ruined or rot if it rains while hay is supposed to be drying in fields.
Hay buyers and farmers also will haggle over prices using a complex equation that takes a series of factors into consideration. They include milk prices in Asia and in the Pacific Northwest; rain in Canada and California; hay lost to drought last year; the high cost of fuel and how much hay Australia and New Zealand plan to export.
Other factors include how much hay was planted this year, how strong the Korean currency is; the Canadian dollar's strength; existing stores of hay and the quality of this year's crop.
Plow though all those numbers and even those who have been in the business for generations aren't sure what to expect.
"Some people think it will go up, some people think it will go down and I think like they do," Calaway said.
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Copyright (c) 2006, Tri-City Herald, Kennewick, Wash.
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Source: Tri-City Herald
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