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Missing the Flow: Reservoirs Along the Rio Grande Predicted at Lowest Levels Since 2002

Posted on: Saturday, 6 May 2006, 12:00 CDT

By Staci Matlock, The Santa Fe New Mexican

May 6--Across the Rockies, snow is melting fast or is already gone, while the snowpack in other Western mountain ranges remains at or above normal, according to the year-end snow report by the Natural Resources Conservation Service released Friday. Water flows into New Mexico's major reservoirs are predicted at below normal to record lows through July, compared to the 30-year average, according to Richard Armijo, the service's snow surveyor.

The Santa Fe Snotel site was registering zero snowpack by May 4, according to Armijo.

Flows into reservoirs along the Rio Grande are predicted to be at their lowest since 2002. The forecast is for 31 percent of normal into Cochiti Lake and 11 percent of normal into Elephant Butte Lake, according to the latest report. Flows into El Vado Lake are predicted to top out at 36 percent of normal with 9 percent of normal into Jemez Canyon Reservoir. Santa Rosa Lake is expected to see inflows of only 5 percent of normal, while Navajo Reservoir will enjoy up to half its normal inflow.

The water content in snowpack in both the southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico portions of the Rio Grande basin is well below normal, meaning there's less water when the snow does melt to fill reservoirs. Water in those reservoirs is crucial for meeting New Mexico's obligations to cities, irrigators and the state of Texas.

Still, due to last year's above-average moisture and snowpack, water levels in most large reservoirs are expected to remain at 70 to 80 percent of their capacity through at least July 4, high enough for boating and recreation, according to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the State Parks Division. "The bad thing is we're going to drain our reservoirs down by the end of irrigation season (in September)," Armijo said.

Meanwhile, dry conditions this year are prompting new national-forest restrictions almost every week by the U.S. Forest Service.

April's late snow brought some areas of New Mexico to above-average moisture for the month, but for the season the state was still well below normal, according to the report.

The latest regionwide report showed average temperatures were running up to 5 degrees above normal around the West, including New Mexico. Higher temperatures, especially at night, increase the rate of snowmelt.

Continuing higher-than-average temperatures are something climate-change scientists predict will continue.

Most of Arizona and New Mexico saw half or less of their average precipitation in snow or rain from October 2005 until now, according to the report.

Far southwestern New Mexico into southeastern Arizona are now in what the service considers exceptional drought conditions, a foreboding situation for farmers and ranchers. "The possible impacts associated with exceptional drought include widespread crop/pasture losses and shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells creating water emergencies," according to the report.

The situation is so dire that the New Mexico Association of Conservation Districts set up a Farmers & Ranchers Drought Help Desk last week to help agriculture producers consider options for surviving the dry year. The desk can be reached at 761-4425 or (800) 410-2067.

Fire danger is running high to extreme throughout the state, according to the latest U.S. Forest Service estimates. Almost 600 fires, most of them humancaused, have burned more than 250,000 acres in New Mexico since Jan. 1.

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Copyright (c) 2006, The Santa Fe New Mexican

Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.

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Source: The Santa Fe New Mexican

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