July 2, 2006

Confidence in ability to control weather dries up

By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent

OSLO (Reuters) - China says its scientists make enough rain
to fill the Yellow River; Moscow claims credit for sunshine for
Red Square parades -- but confidence in other nations that
humans can alter the weather has almost dried up.

If it worked reliably, the use of aircraft and rockets to
spread tiny chemical particles into the sky to "seed" or
disperse clouds could be the answer to famine, drought,
desertification, even global warming.

However, lack of proof that it works means that funding by
many governments has fallen sharply, after millions of dollars
were spent on teasing rain from clouds in arid regions of West
Africa, or on research into trying to prevent hurricanes.

"There used to be big optimism about weather modification
in the 1960s and 1970s," said Slobodan Nickovic, the World
Meteorological Organization's expert on changing the weather.

"But so far fog dispersal...is the only activity where we
have a high level of confidence in the technology," he told
Reuters. Dispersing fog is useful, especially around airports,
but hardly a solution to humanity's wider woes with the

A 2005 WMO report expressed confidence that human use of
chemicals could affect cloud formation but said there was only
"medium" or "low" confidence that the changes lead to
significant changes in rains, hail or snow on the ground.

It said the "unsatisfactory status" of weather research
reflected a lack of understanding of the complexities of
clouds. Rain dancers can sometimes claim credit for a downpour,
even when clouds were about to burst.

"Most questions about weather modification are still open,"
Nickovic said, adding that more research was needed.


Some countries disagree.

Russia claimed credit last year for drying up rains that
had threatened a Moscow parade celebrating the end of World War
Two, attended by President George W. Bush and other world

Eleven planes seeded clouds with chemical dispersal agents
under techniques Moscow says it has perfected over decades and
that it says were used to keep the 1980 Moscow Olympics sunny.

China said in early June that it had created the "world's
leading force" in making rain.

"Its aircraft alone have undertaken enough missions to fill
four Yellow Rivers, the country's second longest river, in the
past five years," the official Xinhua news agency said, citing
the National Meteorological Bureau.

China also hopes to keep the weather under control for the
2008 Olympics. The weather scheme employs more than 3,000
people with 7,000 cannon and 4,687 rocket launchers.

China's "claims...are wildly optimistic, unreasonable and
unproven," said Daniel Breed, a scientist at the U.S. National
Center for Atmospheric Research who works on a cloud seeding
project in Wyoming.

He said China had some good scientists but that "they have
not produced any -- or very little -- credible evidence." He
said that there was evidence from countries such as the United
States, Mexico and South Africa that it was possible to affect
rainfall to help irrigation.

Under cloud seeding, chemicals such as silver iodide are
released by rockets or aircraft, creating tiny particles to
attract moisture and eventually get big enough to fall as rain.

There are limits -- clouds can be helped to form faster but
cannot be conjured from a dry blue sky, Breed said.

Some environmentalists worry that repeated use of chemicals
could damage crops. Others object that any rains coaxed from
the sky in one region just mean less downwind.

"Except for China, funding has gone down to almost zero in
many countries," said Douglas Pattie, an environmental officer
at the secretariat of the U.N. Convention to Combat

In 2003, the U.S. Academy of Sciences said more research
was needed, noting that U.S. investments in weather
modification had sunk to less than $500,000 a year from $20
million in the 1970s.

In one scheme, Washington tried and failed in the 1960s and
1970s to weaken hurricanes with chemicals dropped by planes.
More recent suggestions, dismissed as unworkable, have included
towing icebergs to the Caribbean to cool storm formation.

Apart from irrigation or helping to fill hydroelectric
dams, full control of rain and clouds could, in theory, solve
global warming -- more clouds could be made to reflect the
sun's heat back into space.