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Shrinking-but-Aging Population is Highlands Demographic Time-Bomb

Posted on: Monday, 10 May 2004, 06:00 CDT

THE Highlands is facing a demographic time-bomb, with its population due to fall and age significantly over the next 13 years.

According to predictions, the number of people living in the region will drop by 4.3 per cent to 199,958 by 2017 when the population will be falling by nearly 800 a year. The area will see a marked decrease in the number of young people and a considerable rise among the elderly.

Previous predictions in 1998 suggested that the Highland population would rise by 2016, with increases in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, and Skye and Lochalsh.

However, new projections now suggest that numbers will actually fall in line with the national trend, with just Inverness showing a rise (4.3 per cent). The smallest decline is likely in Badenoch and Strathspey (1.4 per cent), but Sutherland's population is due to plummet by over 17 per cent.

It is felt the area has to bring in more immigrants with some locations already suffering from labour shortages.

Highland Council has organised a population summit on Wednesday to discuss the implications for public bodies in areas such as health and housing.

A paper to be delivered to the summit by Arthur McCourt, the council's chief executive, shows a general picture of an ageing population with a 23.2 per cent drop in the 0-15 age group by 2017.

The change is particularly marked in the far north. Sutherland is due to see a decrease of 45 per cent in the 0-15 age group and Caithness a fall of nearly 38 per cent. While all areas will experience a drop in the 16-64 age group, it will again be worse for Sutherland (24 per cent) and Caithness (20.4 per cent). By contrast, Inverness will see little change in this age group, falling by only 0.5 per cent.

The declines will be partly offset by large increases in the 65- plus population. This is expected across all areas of the Highlands, with the greatest rises of about 49 per cent in Badenoch and Strathspey and Ross and Cromarty.

Sutherland will see the smallest rise in this age (24.2 per cent) but, as it already has an elderly population, its residents will still be among the oldest in the Highlands by 2017.

Mr McCourt will say: "Scotland's population has been in gradual decline for a number of years and is expected to continue to fall by 2 per cent by 2016. Up until now Highland has been going against this trend with a steadily increasing population.

"However, the 2001 interim projections show that the future population in Highland is likely to change broadly in line with the national picture."

He said the drop is due to a number of factors - fewer births, people living longer, and a fall in the number of people moving to the area, from 750 to 100 annually.

David Alston, the chairman of the council's renewing democracy and community planning select committee, said: "The trends are more marked here than the rest of Scotland. Scotland has a problem with an ageing population, but we have got it in spades."

He said some areas are compensating for falling numbers of young people by increases in older people moving to set up home and, in some cases, retire. Mr Alston added: "At present we are storing up a problem.

"We have to make it more attractive for people to come here to raise families. If you want to solve the problem you have to bring people in - that means more younger people - and encourage them to make the move to the Highlands earlier, rather than waiting for them to retire."

It is hoped the development of a university of the Highlands and Islands, due to have full title by 2007, could help bring in more young people, he said: "We hope it will meet its original target of 30 per cent of its students coming from outwith the area."

But he felt the area also had to attract more immigrants, possibly from Eastern Europe, to boost the population. "Some communities will find that difficult, but those who accept it will thrive," he said.

Earlier this year the council was told that Scottish Executive efforts to attract more people to Scotland were not enough.

Jack McConnell, the First Minister, recently announced plans to bring in 8,000 people a year between now and 2009 under the Fresh Talent Initiative to stop the population falling below five million.

But Professor Richard Wright, head of the economics department at Stirling University, said the figure was not enough to counter the demographic decline and that 50,000 incomers a year - 1 per cent of the population - are needed.

He suggested that overseas workers seeking to settle in Scotland should be given visas only on condition that they remain in the country for five years, instead of the Executive's plan for two years.

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