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Scientists Seek Better Hurricane Forecasts

Posted on: Tuesday, 1 June 2004, 06:00 CDT

By RACHEL LA CORTE

MIAMI (AP) -- In the world of hurricane forecasting, new tools for predicting strength, path and size of storms can't come quickly enough.

A small corner at the National Hurricane Center is the site of a research initiative where new technology undergoes real-time, interactive testing in hopes of improving the information emergency managers use to decide to evacuate coastal residents and help protect property when a storm approaches.

The Joint Hurricane Testbed brings together the academic, operational and research communities in hurricane forecasting. Much of the research focuses on determining intensity, the path of the storm and rainfall - all areas scientists have studied for years.

But the testbed, created in 2001 and financed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, allows forecasters to monitor and evaluate researchers' work during the hurricane season so it can quickly become implemented if proven successful.

With the start of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season Tuesday, several testbed projects will be in use, including a computer model that will help forecasters predict whether a weak storm poses a risk of suddenly intensifying.

The testbed itself is nothing special to look at. It consists of a few computer terminals in the corner of the hurricane center's operations center in Miami. Posted on the wall above the terminals is a list of current projects.

During a storm, forecasters can easily call up incoming data on one of the screens, or pull a printout with some data to see how the new models did compared with the existing technology.

Of the testbed's first 10 projects that ended last year, six were implemented right away and will be used this season, including the rapid intensification model.

"The whole idea is to transition research projects into operations faster and more efficiently," said hurricane center director Max Mayfield. "Now for the first time in a long time we really have a say in where the money goes."

The rapid intensity index, developed in part by John Kaplan, a meteorologist at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division on Virginia Key in Biscayne Bay, will determine the odds of a storm strengthening by at least 35 mph over a 24-hour period.

The probability index only goes up to 60 percent in the Atlantic basin, and researchers say that high level is achieved only in a few rare cases. But previously, forecasters could only assume that the chance of a storm intensifying rapidly was about 5 percent.

Like Kaplan, many of the scientists are already based nearby, at NOAA's research division.

Scientists from across the country propose ideas and compete for grants that average about $100,000 per year, with many of the projects in research for two years. Fifteen projects currently in development through 2005 will cost a total of about $2.6 million.

Sim Aberson received $133,000 in 2001 to improve how data is collected by the G4 aircraft that flies around a hurricane. Aberson has been working on research targeting the best places to send planes since 1982. His research is undergoing evaluation and testing through at least this year's season, which ends Nov. 30.

He said the testbed money allows him to get his research done a little quicker. For instance, Aberson was able to hire a computer programmer, freeing him up to do other work.

Researchers in other parts of the country travel to South Florida to do some work, but also can submit their information via computer.

Forecasters at the hurricane center receive the data by computer or printer. After the one or two-year testing period, a panel of reviewers, and ultimately Mayfield, decide whether the project was successful and should be permanently implemented into the hurricane center's operations.

"The idea was let's put a testbed at the place where they actually do the forecast and put the research in that environment at a terminal where they actually can see it," said Frank Marks, director of NOAA's hurricane research division and a member of the testbed's steering committee. "The goal of the JHT is to help the guy who has to sit at that desk and make that forecast."

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On the Net:

National Hurricane Center

Joint Hurricane Testbed

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