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2003 World Population Data Sheet July 22

Posted on: Thursday, 17 July 2003, 06:00 CDT

News Advisory:

Event:

Population Reference Bureau press conference to release 2003 World Population Data Sheet

When:

Tuesday, July 22

Where:

National Press Club, Zenger Room, 529 14th St., NW, Washington, D.C.

Speaker:

Carl Haub, senior demographer, Population Reference Bureau

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Editors: Substantive material in this advisory is EMBARGOED until 10 a.m. EDT, July 22, 2003

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Details:

Much of the world is challenged by skewed population growth, according to the 2003 World Population Data Sheet, published by the Population Reference Bureau. While some developed nations are experiencing a population nosedive from which they may never recover, many poor nations are still adding millions of people to a world of abject poverty, hunger, and disease.

The pace of population growth inexorably affects markets, capital accumulation, labor availability, job creation, immigration, migration, health care, retirement benefits, education, and a host of other national considerations. High total fertility rates (average total number of children a women has) are exclusively found in the poorest nations, where women often have six or more children.

"Have and have-not nations live in totally different worlds," noted PRB demographer Carl Haub, the data sheet's author, "but they are all shaped by their rate of growth. What constitutes balanced population growth remains for each nation to decide and is a question of endless debate."

An astounding 99 percent of all population growth takes place in developing countries. Developed countries, which held roughly one- third of the global population in 1950, now represent less than one- fifth the total, and the percentage will fall annually. Of the major industrialized nations, only the United States combines a significant total fertility rate, 2.0, and relatively high immigration.

Eastern Europe leads in decline, followed by Western and Southern Europe. The former Soviet Union and its late Eastern-bloc satellites are expected to lose more than one-sixth of their regional population by 2050, dropping from 301 million to 247 million.

Japan, which currently has little immigration, will drop from 127 million to 101 million by mid-century. Germany and Italy are also projected to lose population. Once a country's childbearing age groups are significantly diminished, its ability to regenerate population growth becomes quite difficult, even if the birth rate rises. The total developed country population is slated to start declining about 2025. The graying of the industrialized nations creates a dilemma for many: maintain the basic ethnic stock of the nation or diversify and let in immigrants to maintain the labor force.

Conversely, over the next 47 years Africa is expected to increase its population by 119 percent, adding 1 billion people as Europe experiences a 9 percent decline. Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa, must create millions of jobs, health care facilities, and educational opportunities at a time of staggering poverty, conflict, and epidemics.

The population of western Asia is projected to more than double by 2050, going from 204 million to 418 million. Iraq's war-scarred population, for example, is expected to rise from 24.2 million to 60.5 million by mid-century. Yemen's population will jump from 19.4 million today to 71.1 million in 2050, becoming more populous than France or the United Kingdom are today or will be in 2050. And the Palestine Territory's high rate of natural increase will make the area more populous than Israel by around 2050.

This year's World Population Data Sheet shows that in developed countries the percent of population ages 65 and older is three times higher than in less developed countries; and the percent of children 15 years and younger in less developed countries, excluding China, is twice that of developed nations.

As a result of skewed growth rates, a country like Italy has a surplus of teachers and schools, while a sub-Saharan African country such as Mali has a high proportion of uneducated youngsters and a limited educational infrastructure.

The data sheet's listing of the world's 20 largest countries in 2003 and 2050 show industrialized countries, with the exception of the United States, falling in rank. Russia, Japan, Germany, and France are all being passed by less developed countries. As a sign of the times, France was replaced as number 20 by Uganda.

The 2003 World Population Data Sheet has the most up-to-date demographic data and estimates for all the countries and major regions of the world. The rundown provides a look at regional and national contrasts in age structure, population growth, life expectancy, income, and other determinants that mark today's bifurcated world population growth.

The Population Reference Bureau is the leader in providing timely and objective information on U.S. and international population trends and their implications. PRB is a nonprofit, nonadvocacy organization in Washington, D.C.

http://www.usnewswire.com

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