Africa may add a billion people by 2050

Africa may add a billion people by 2050

Soaring populations will strain world’s resources, study says

By GENARO C. ARMAS

Associated Press

Sunday, July 27, 2003

Washington — Africa’s population could soar by more than 1 billion over the next half-century, further straining food and water supplies and social services in areas already struggling.

Political unrest and war have limited the ability of many developing nations to promote family planning and literacy programs, said Carl Haub, author of the study from the Population Reference Bureau, a private research group.

In many of these countries, big families are the cultural norm. African governments, especially those of sub-Saharan nations, will need to create millions of jobs and improve health care facilities and schools, the report said.

“Africa is going to have a hard time taking on another 1 billion people,” Haub said. “How do you raise living standards, how do you educate, improve health care, and how do you battle AIDS at the same time?”

The latest edition of the “World Population Data Sheet” estimates the global population will rise 46% between now and 2050 to about 9 billion, a level also predicted by the United Nations and other groups.

European nations, more industrialized and prosperous, are expected to lose population — 9% to 664 million — because of falling birth rates and low immigration.

The U.S. population is expected to grow 45% to 422 million in 2050, paced by a stable birth rate and high levels of immigration.

But most of the world’s growth will be in developing nations. India’s population is estimated to grow 52% to 1.6 billion by 2050, by which time it will have surpassed China as the world’s largest country.

The population in neighboring Pakistan will grow to 349 million, up 134% by 2050. Triple-digit growth rates also are forecast for Iraq, Afghanistan and Nepal.

Africa is supposed to more than double in population to 1.9 billion by mid-century.

The population in Congo, which has been torn by civil war, could more than triple during the same period to 181 million. And Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria, could more than double to 307 million.

“The governments don’t have the wherewithal to fund the (family planning) programs. And any family planning program is interrupted by political strife,” Haub said.

Growth in Africa comes despite the world’s highest rates of HIV and AIDS infection.

The epidemic is worst in Botswana, where nearly 2 of 5 residents ages 15 to 49 are infected.

The country’s population is expected to decline 43% by 2050 to just under 1 million.

Meanwhile, extreme poverty and environmental devastation have left billions of people without adequate food or water, the United Nations said in a report last year.

That report found that global water use had increased sixfold over the last century, at twice the rate of population growth. Inefficient agricultural systems were the greatest drain on the world’s fresh water supplies.

Food consumption was expected to increase, although the capacity to produce enough food is diminishing, especially in developing countries, the U.N. report found.

“The problem isn’t too many people. It’s the lack of solid socioeconomic development policies,” said Scott Weinberg, director of governmental affairs for the Population Research Institute, which opposes population controls as a way to curb growth.

GROWING NATIONS

The 10 largest countries by population in 2003 and 2050, according to estimates from the Population Reference Bureau

2003

Country Pop. (millions)

China 1,289

India 1,069

United States 292

Indonesia 220

Brazil 176

Pakistan 149

Bangladesh 147

Russia 146

Nigeria 134

Japan 128

2050

Country Pop. (millions)

India 1,628

China 1,394

United States 422

Pakistan 349

Indonesia 316

Nigeria 307

Bangladesh 255

Brazil 221

Dem. Rep. of Congo 181

Ethiopia 173

Associated Press