• E-mail
• Print
• Comment
• Font Size
• Digg
• del.icio.us
• Discuss article

Scotland Faces 500,000 Drop in Population; Pension and Healthcare Fears As Workforce Numbers Slump

Posted on: Friday, 30 July 2004, 06:00 CDT

SCOTLAND'S population will slump dramatically over the next 40 years but there will be a huge rise in the number of pensioners, new figures reveal.

By 2042, one in six Scots will be over 75 and the country's population will have dropped by 500,000.

Fewer Scots will be working and paying tax - raising fears of a pension and healthcare timebomb.

The figures, published by the Office of National Statistics, forecast the number of people aged 75 and over will rise from 364,000 in 2002 to 764,000 in 2042, around 17% of the population.

Children under 16 are projected to fall from 955,000 to 665,000 during the same period.

In just over 10 years, the number of Scots aged between 30 and 45 will drop by almost 250,000, or 23%, while the 45-59 group will rise by 15%.

Latest figures show Scotland's population has fallen to 5,057,400 and experts believe it may fall below the 5,000,000 mark by 2009.

Susan Deacon MSP, who expressed concern about cost of free care for the elderly when it was first being considered, said: "It is vital that the implications of these changes are fully considered."

Experts say the retirement age may have to rise to ease the burden on the public sector, and retailers and other businesses will have to alter their products and services to cater for older customers.

Earlier this year the Scottish Executive launched an initiative designed to boost the population by encouraging more immigrants to come and work in Scotland.

Fresh Talent aims to attract 8000 foreign workers a year to reverse the country's population decline and alter predicted future trends.

Brian Wilson MP, a former Scottish Office minister, said: "These figures contain the scale of the age imbalance that is going to develop and reinforce the need to encourage more people to migrate to Scotland.

"There will always be an outflow of Scots seeking opportunities around the world, which is healthy, but the way to balance that is to stimulate more migration by money makers."

As Scotland's population drops, the number of people living in England and Wales is expected to rise by almost 7,000,000 over the next four decades.

Long-term projections suggest the UK population will peak by 2050 at more than 65,000,000 and then gradually start to fall.

A Scottish Executive spokesman said: "The biggest single challenge facing Scotland is our falling population and if we are to succeed in the global economy we need a constant flow of fresh talent to flourish alongside homegrown talent."

jonathan.paisley@eveningtimes.co.uk

More News in this Category