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Population Boom Predicted for Developing Countries

Posted on: Wednesday, 18 August 2004, 06:00 CDT

Population boom predicted for developing countries

Cox News Service

Wednesday, August 18, 2004

Washington -- Developing countries will grow about 14 times faster than rich, industrialized countries between now and 2050, and the changes will replace Russia and Japan on the list of the world's 10 largest countries with Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Population Reference Bureau said.

"The divide in growth rates is larger than ever," said William Butz, the bureau's president. "Developing countries in Africa and Asia alone will account for about 90 percent of the increase in world population."

The 1.2 billion population of the more developed countries is projected to grow barely 4% by 2050 and remain under 1.3 billion. They are the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Europe, including Russia and Ukraine. Europe's low birth rates and aging population account for much of the gap.

"Women's schooling, economic development generally and family planning services bring down birth rates," Butz said.

Today, about 5.2 billion people live in the less developed countries. That population is projected to grow 55% by 2050 and exceed 8 billion. Their health care is improving, their populations contain more people of child-bearing age, and their birth rates -- although slowing down -- remain high.

The projections assume that HIV/AIDS prevalence in Africa, which already is declining in 14 out of 38 affected countries, will peak in 10 to 15 years, said senior demographer Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau.

"The United States is the only more developed country where we anticipate a significant increase during the first half of the 21st century," Haub said.

The U.S. population of 294 million is projected to grow 43 percent and reach 410 million, due mainly to immigration and a stable birth rate of 2.0 children per woman.

The United States would remain the third most populous nation in 2050, behind India, which would rise to first place, and China, which would slip to second, the report said.

On the Net: Population Reference Bureau: www.prb.org

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