Impact of Climate Change on Different Regions

ASIA

Projected increases in temperatures and changes in precipitation “will increase the risk of hunger in Asia, especially in developing countries”.

If current warming rates are maintained, Himalayan glaciers could shrink to 100,000 square kilometers by the 2030s from 500,000 square kilometers now. That would disrupt river flows and bring more rock avalanches.

Around 30 percent of Asian coral reefs are expected to be lost in the next 30 years due to climate change and other factors.

Between 120 million and 1.2 billion people are likely to experience more water shortages by the 2020s.

A 1 meter rise in sea level far above the 18-59 centimeter gain projected for 2100 would lead to widespread flooding in deltas such as the Mekong and Red Rivers. Flooding with a 1 meter rise in sea level could affect 3-5.5 million people in the delta, and 4 million in the Red River delta.

The annual per capita availability of freshwater in India is expected to drop from around 1,900 cubic meters to 1,000 by 2025 due to population growth and climate change.

Falls in crop yields are suggested for parts of Asia.

EUROPE

The percentage of river basin areas with severe water stress is expected to increase from 19 percent to 34-36 percent by the 2070s.

Millions of people are likely to live in watersheds with shortages in western Europe.

Under scenarios of a fast rise in global temperatures, an extra 2.5 million people a year will be affected by coastal flooding by the 2080s.

By the 2070s, hydropower potential for Europe is expected to decline overall by 6 percent, ranging from a 20-50 percent decrease in the Mediterranean region to a 15-30 percent increase in Northern and Eastern Europe.

A large percentage of European flora could become vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered or extinct under a range of scenarios.

By 2050, crops are expected to show a northward expansion. In northern Europe, wheat yields may gain by 8 to 25 percent by 2050. But in the south, yields may range from a fall of 8 percent to a gain of 22 percent by 2050.

Forested area is likely to increase in the north and decrease in the south, with a redistribution of species. Forest fire risk is virtually certain to increase greatly in southern Europe.

Small alpine glaciers will disappear, while larger glaciers will suffer a volume reduction of between 30 to 70 percent by 2050.

Tourism to the Mediterranean might fall in summer and increase in spring and autumn.

A rapid shutdown of the Gulf Stream bringing warm waters northwards across the Atlantic to Europe viewed as a low probability could have severe impacts such as cutting crop production, more cold-related deaths, and a shift in populations south.

NORTH AMERICA

Population growth, rising property values and continued investment increase the vulnerability of coastal regions. Any rise in destructiveness of coastal storms is very likely to bring “dramatic increases” in losses from severe weather and storm surges.

Sea level rises, tidal surges and flooding have the “potential to severely affect transportation and infrastructure along the Gulf, Atlantic and northern coasts.”

Severe heatwaves are likely to worsen over parts of the United States and Canada.

Ozone related deaths are projected to increase by 4.5 percent from the 1990s to the 2050s.

Projected warming in the western mountains is likely to cause large decreases in snowpack, earlier snowmelt and more winter rains by mid-century.

Climate change is likely to increase forest production. But by the second half of the century, the dominant impacts will be disruptions from pests and fires. Forest areas burnt each summer in Canada could rise by between 74 and 118 percent by 2100 compared to now.

LATIN AMERICA

Glaciers in the tropical Andes are very likely to disappear over the next 15 years, reducing water availability and hydropower generation in Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador.

Any decline in rainfall in semi-arid regions of Argentina, Brazil and Chile is likely to lead to severe water shortages.

By the 2020s, between 7 and 77 million people are likely to suffer from a lack of adequate water supplies.

A rise in sea level, weather and climatic variability are very likely to have impacts on low-lying areas, buildings and tourism, mangroves, coral reefs and the location of fish stocks off Peru and Chile.

Temperature increases of 2 C and decreases in soil water would turn eastern parts of Amazonia to savannah from tropical forest. In turn, that could threaten many species.

The frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Caribbean might increase.

AUSTRALIA/

NEW ZEALAND

Many ecosystems are likely to be altered by 2020. Among the most vulnerable are the Great Barrier Reef, south-western Australia, Kakadu wetlands, rainforests and mountain areas.

Water security problems are very likely to increase by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia, and parts of eastern New Zealand away from major rivers. In Australia, there could be a 10-25 percent reduction in river flow in the Murray-Darling basin by 2050.

Development of coastal regions could lead to property coming under threat from rising sea levels. By 2050 there is likely to be loss of high-value land, faster road deterioration and degraded beaches.

In southeast Australia, the frequency of days when bush fires threaten is likely to rise by between 4 and 25 percent by 2020.

Increased temperatures and demographic changes are likely to increase peak energy demand in summer which could lead to black- outs.

Farm production is likely to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand due to increased drought and fire. If enough water is available, longer growing seasons and less risk of frost are likely to aid farming in much of New Zealand and parts of southern Australia.

In south and west New Zealand, growth rates of economically important plantation crops are likely to increase.

The elderly will be at risk from heatwaves, with an extra 3,200- 5,200 deaths on average per year by 2050.

AFRICA

Reductions in the area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, are likely to lead to increased risk of hunger.

An increase of 5-8 percent (60-90 million hectares) of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected by the 2080s.

Current stress on water in many areas of Africa is likely to increase, with floods and droughts.

Any changes in the productivity of large lakes are likely to affect local food supplies.

Ecosystems in Africa are likely to experience dramatic changes with some species facing possible extinctions.

Major delta regions with large populations, such as the Nile and Niger rivers, will be threatened by sea level rises.

Agencies

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