Dry-Spell Concerns Continue to Escalate
By Tiffany St. Martin, The Bradenton Herald, Fla.
Apr. 3–For wildfire mitigation specialist Patrick Mahoney, “fear would be better” than nervous to describe how he feels when the weather is as dry as it has been through the first three months of the year.
So far, the Myakka River District of the Florida Division of Forestry has remained fortunate, especially considering the weather conditions as of late: high temperatures, low humidity and 10- to 15-mph winds, Mahoney said. “That’s all good if you’re working outside, but it takes fire danger through the roof.”
Weather experts aren’t predicting anything out of the ordinary once the rainy season starts, but until then forest rangers are on full alert and water restrictions remain in place in Manatee County.
With the current weather conditions, forestry officials “pray really hard for rain,” Mahoney said, as it will take a significant amount of rain with rain falling on multiple days to lessen the threat of wildfires.
The last day the Manatee-Sarasota area saw anything more than a trace of rain was March 16, when 0.11 of an inch of rain fell. Thirteen-hundredths of an inch fell March 15, and the two days brought the area’s total up to 3.6 inches of rain for the year, well below the 9.05 inches normal through April 2, said Ernie Jillson, a forecaster with the National Weather Service’s Ruskin office.
Still, Manatee is the least dry of the five counties that make up the Myakka River District, Mahoney said.
On the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which determines the potential for forest fires, Manatee is at 549, while Charlotte County is at 684. The drought index tops out at 800. The higher the number, the greater probability of wildfires.
The dry season traditionally averages 2 inches of rain a month, rain that’s usually accompanied by cold fronts, Jillson said.
“There’s always a scientific reason behind it,” he said. “Basically, it depends on where the jet stream is active, and that’s tended to not be over our region this year.”
The rash of cold weather the area experienced in late January and mid-February did more to affect the crops of Pacific Tomato Growers than the dry weather, said Billy Heller Jr., chief executive of the Palmetto company.
For the most part, tomatoes prefer dry weather, and once they start maturing and turning red, rain hurts rather than helps them, Heller said.
Pacific Tomato uses a low-volume irrigation system on its tomatoes, as tomatoes do better with a consistent water level.
Still, Heller said, “having a little shower wouldn’t hurt.”
The rainy season starts the first or second week of June, though it’s normal to see summer showers at the end of May. There’s no way to tell whether it will be a particularly wet or dry summer, Jillson said.
“The problem with summer time rain is it’s so variable,” he said. “One particular area may be way above normal, and another place 50 miles away can be below normal.”
A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook for the 165 days ending Aug. 31 shows there’s an equal chance for above- or below-normal rainfall.
Jillson said the next chance of rain is Thursday, when there’s a 20 percent chance of showers.
“Keep your fingers crossed,” he said.
Tiffany St. Martin, Herald reporter, can be reached at 708-7918.
Water restrictions ]\
In January, the Southwest Florida Water Management District put in place the following water restrictions, which will stay in place until at least July 31:
–Properties 1 acre or smaller can water from midnight to 8 a.m., or 6 p.m. to 11:59 p.m. Properties 2 or more acres can water from midnight to 10 a.m. or 4 p.m. to 11:59 p.m.
–A home with a house number ending in 0 or 1 can water Mondays.
–A home with a house number ending in 2 or 3 can water Tuesdays.
–A home with a house number ending in 4 or 5 can water Wednesdays.
–A home with a house number ending in 6 or 7 can water Thursdays.
–A home with a house number ending in 8 or 9 can water Fridays.
–No homes can water Saturdays or Sundays.
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Copyright (c) 2007, The Bradenton Herald, Fla.
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News.
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