Warming Could Hurt Maine Industries

By JOHN RICHARDSON Staff Writer

Native birds and fish could disappear from Maine’s mountains and coastal waters.

Farmers could have longer growing seasons, and more droughts.

Storms like the Patriot’s Day nor’easter could become more common.

And the western Maine mountains could be the last place in the Northeastern United States to support a viable downhill ski industry.

Those are some of the impacts that global warming could have in Maine, according to a report issued Wednesday by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

While the changes may dramatically affect the ecology and economy of the states, according to the report, the most severe and costly impacts also can be avoided if global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can be reduced.

"The future is in our hands," said Thomas Tietenberg, an economics professor at Colby College and one of more than 60 scientists nationwide to contribute to the report. "The economically prudent decision is to take action now."

The Union of Concerned Scientists, an advocacy group based in Cambridge, Mass., issued the 125-page report on climate change in the Northeast as a follow-up to more general findings issued last fall. It includes the most specific projections yet about how climate change could affect Maine.

Teams of scientists used computer models to project changes and applied the changes to sectors such as forests, oceans and recreation. The projections are limited by unpredictable events and by uncertainty about how complex natural systems such as the ocean will react to climate changes.

But scientists involved in the work said the research clearly shows dramatic changes lie ahead if emissions are not reduced.

"Our emissions choices are essentially shaping the climate future," said Erika Spanger, project manager for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Maine’s commissioner of the Department of Environmental Protection, David Littell, said the findings are consistent with the state’s own research into how global warming may affect the state. "We see a real, dramatic threat to our forests, our coasts and our fisheries," Littell said.

Maine is expected to see a shift away from its valuable spruce and fir forests, according to Tietenberg.

And the state’s coastal waters are expected to shift in ways not yet entirely understood, said Lewis Incze, a University of Southern Maine marine scientist and another co-author of the report.

Climate can affect the ocean’s salinity, chemistry and currents. But even the simple warming of the ocean is expected to have important effects.

Cod, which is at the southern end of its range, could be driven away from Georges Bank and out of the Gulf of Maine, the report says.

Lobsters, on the other hand, could increase in number in some parts of the Gulf. Those lobsters, however, could also become more vulnerable to shell disease and other threats.

Scientists are beginning to study and understand the effects of climate change on the ocean and on regional resources, Incze said.

"A report like this sets a benchmark for future research," he said. "Up until this point, people haven’t had a platform to stand on."

Staff Writer John Richardson can be contacted at 791-6324 or at:

jrichardson@pressherald.com

[Sidebar]

WHAT YOU CAN DO

Choose a more fuel- efficient vehicle and drive it less.

Look for the Energy Star label when buying appliances.

Purchase renewable power from your electricity provider.

Unplug rarely used freezers and refrigerators.

Get a home energy audit to find out ways to cut energy use.

Switch to compact fluorescent light bulbs.

WARMING WOULD TAKE TOLL ON LAND AND SEA

According to the Union of Concerned Scientists’ report, global warming is projected to affect Maine in the following ways if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced:

Winters will be as much as 10 to 13 degrees warmer by late century, with more rain and less snow.

Summers will be as much as 7 to 13 degrees warmer, with more severe storms and more frequent droughts.

Forests will shift away from spruce and fir to other species, threatening such animals as Canada lynx and Bicknell’s thrush and threatening some of the state’s 19,000 forest-products jobs.

Recreational activities such as skiing, snowmobiling and ice fishing, and the businesses that support them, will decline significantly. The western Maine mountains could be the only place in the Northeast able to support viable ski operations by the end of the century.

Ocean fisheries could shift, with warmer water driving cod away from Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine. Lobsters could increase in some parts of the Gulf, although disease or other threats also may increase.

n Crop-growing seasons will lengthen, but spring storms, summer heat and droughts could limit agricultural productivity.

Some health risks could increase, including more days with poor air quality and expansion of diseases such as West Nile virus and Lyme.

(c) 2007 Portland Press Herald. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.