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NASA Far from Certain on Determining Shuttle's Next Launch Date

Posted on: Friday, 18 July 2003, 06:00 CDT

Jul. 18--WASHINGTON--NASA managers have set a target date for launching the next space shuttle no earlier than March, and that date could slide even more.

At a meeting this week, NASA managers recommended shifting an unofficial timetable from Dec. 18 to no earlier than March 11, according to internal documents obtained by the Orlando Sentinel.

And even the new launch target is more for planning purposes than an indication of when the next shuttle may actually fly, NASA officials said.

NASA still is waiting for the results of the Columbia accident investigation, and a host of factors including tricky hardware fixes to make the shuttles safer, new launch requirements and an inspection that needs to be done on Atlantis -- the next orbiter in line -- make circling any date on a calendar very difficult.

"The fact that NASA talks about a target date does not necessarily mean that's a projected launch date," agency spokesman Bob Jacobs said. "Because everything is going to be predicated on what comes out of the [Columbia Accident Investigation Board]."

The head of that panel, retired Adm. Harold Gehman, has said that the board's report, expected to be released late next month, should not contain any surprises for NASA. The board has already telegraphed, either informally or through interim recommendations to the space agency, the most challenging changes that are needed before the next launch.

NASA is close to a solution for the so-called bipod ramp on the shuttle's massive external fuel tank. That's the area where the shuttle connects to the tank and where the 1.67-pound chunk of foam came loose and struck Columbia's left wing on liftoff. Investigators think that strike caused the damage that allowed superhot gases to penetrate Columbia's wing during re-entry, dooming the seven-member crew.

But the board's mandate that the agency come up with a plan to repair the thermal tiles and reinforced carbon-carbon panels that protect the shuttle from the searing heat of re-entry, however, is almost certain to take significantly longer.

Then there are the hurdles posed by the new requirement that the shuttle only be launched in daylight, so that cameras can film and document any future damage to a shuttle during liftoff. NASA also wants the separation of the external tank from the shuttle, roughly eight minutes into launch, to occur in daylight, further restricting the dates and times for scheduling a liftoff.

In addition, Atlantis needs a wiring inspection before its next flight, and program managers are still wrestling with whether to do a very detailed inspection -- which could pose a schedule problem -- or a slightly less comprehensive version.

All these variables are part of a mix that includes pressure to support the international space station, questions from Congress once the report is released and the attention of a public eager to close the book on the Feb. 1 loss of Columbia and her crew.

After the 1986 Challenger accident, NASA didn't launch a shuttle for more than 2 1/2 years. The agency is almost certain to beat that deadline this time around, but by how much?

"There are so many factors that will go into when the shuttle will fly again," said Jim Muncy, an independent space-policy consultant at PoliSpace in Alexandria, Va.

"Until the Gehman board issues its final recommendations, NASA comes up with a plan and Congress supports it, we won't know when they will launch again," he added.

The effort by NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe and others to adhere to some kind of tentative launch timetable is an attempt to do several things, insiders and observers say. One primary concern is the need to keep morale up within the agency, and to give the thousands of people involved in the shuttle program a time-sensitive goal to work toward.

"You've got to have a date to shoot for," said Lynn Beattie, president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 2061. The local represents more than 600 ground-support workers at Kennedy Space Center.

"We know there are going to be new requirements put on us [by the Columbia board]," he said. "But we don't know what they are."

Another factor is the need to keep NASA's international partners in the space-station program on board. With Atlantis and the other remaining shuttles, Discovery and Endeavour, grounded, the station is operating with a reduced two-person crew and a thin margin of error for supplies. Even that is dependent on the Russian space program and its manned Soyuz spacecraft and unmanned Progress supply ships.

The shuttle, however, is the only vehicle with the capacity to carry the giant pieces scheduled to be added to the station. And NASA has an additional incentive for getting the shuttle flying again: Federal law prevents the agency from paying Russia directly for additional Soyuz and Progress flights that might be needed, if it's proven that Moscow is helping Iraq develop weapons technology.

So far, NASA has worked things out with Russia and the 14 other international partners, though the details remain sketchy. But how long those arrangements can last is uncertain. In fact, a launch in March or April would coincide roughly with a planned change-out of the station's crew.

Standing between NASA and a return to flight, however, is an assortment of issues -- some technical, some more amorphous. Among them:

Fixing the bipod ramp. O'Keefe and other NASA officials have said they will find another way to keep ice from forming on that part of the supercooled tank without using foam. Engineers will likely use heaters but are still tinkering with the exact details.

Repairing the shuttle in orbit. On June 27, the investigation board recommended that NASA find a way to repair in space the thermal tiles that blanket the belly of the orbiter as well as the reinforced carbon-carbon, or RCC, panels that line the leading edges of the wings. The agency is looking for a solution, but engineers don't expect a tile-repair option to emerge until at least December, and the method for patching RCC in space may take even longer.

New launch requirements. The mandate for daytime launches alone reduces the number of opportunities for launches, particularly because nearly every shuttle will be headed for the space station.

Already, NASA has to avoid scheduling liftoffs at times when the station's orbit prevents it from generating enough solar power to operate when a shuttle is docked. These periods amount to several weeks each year. Add in the requirement that tank separation and launches occur only in daylight, and the number of opportunities for liftoff dwindles further.

Atlantis' wiring. The need for the inspection, which is unrelated to any post-Columbia changes, also affects the schedule. According to internal NASA documents, shuttle contractors could support a launch as early as March only if a less-comprehensive inspection is done.

The working dates for the next three missions have also shifted, according to internal documents. They're now slated for no earlier than July 24, Sept. 13 and Dec. 15.

Unknown factors. The board's report, even if it contains no surprises, could spark additional changes within NASA, or prompt Congress to make independent suggestions. Plus, NASA is forming a panel to vet the agency's compliance with the board's recommendations, adding another layer to the process.

Ultimately, the timetable is about how many changes are practical, and how much money they will cost, said Howard McCurdy, a professor at American University and the author of several books on the space program.

"To a certain extent the question is, how long do you want to take? They could fly in six weeks if they had to, and they could wait 2 1/2 years if they wanted to, and it's someplace in between," McCurdy said. "It's all about risk."

By Gwyneth K. Shaw and Jim Leusner. Sentinel Space Editor Michael Cabbage contributed to this report.

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