Officials Still Investigating Security Satellite Failure
Officials are still examining the failure of a classified Northrop Grumman Corp.-built missile warning satellite, known as DSP 23, four months ago. Â
The Defense Support Program (DSP) satellite was owned and operated by the U.S. Air Force, and was launched into geosynchronous orbit around the Earth in November 2007. By mid-September of last year the satellite had stopped responding to commands.
A Reuters report cited one U.S. defense official that likened the current investigation to "sophisticated, long-distance detective work."
"There’s not that much data available," the official told Reuters.
"You have to go back and recreate what might have been going on," said the official, adding that there may never be "great certitude" about what caused the malfunction.
According to defense officials, possible reasons include natural phenomena such as a solar flare, defective parts, software issues or even space debris. A deliberate attack was also a possibility, officials said, but highly unlikely.
Last February the U.S. government shot down a smaller classified satellite amid concerns about a toxic fuel tank. The satellite had experienced software problems and failed shortly after it was launched in December 2006. Lockheed Martin Corp was subsequently forced to rewrite the software code for its Space Based Infrared Satellites (SBIRS), which will succeed the DSP program.
While it is unclear whether similar software problems might be responsible for the latest failure, officials said the possibility is being closely examined.
Since 1970, the U.S. government has launched 23 of Northrop’s DSP missile-warning satellites, two of which failed to reach orbit. According to experts, seven are still working, roughly twice the number needed to watch the entire planet at once.
However, analyst Loren Thompson of the private Lexington Institute said unless new satellites are launched soon, DSP 23′s failure raises the risk that the U.S. could fall short in its ability to detect enemy missiles in the future.
"Everybody expects the oldest satellites to fail, but when you lose your newest satellite, you’re taking years off the tail end of how long the constellation is going to be effective," Thompson told Reuters.
While the first two of Lockheed’s SBIRS sensors are currently in orbit on board other satellites, the first dedicated satellites will not be launched until 2010.
Lockheed’s SBIRS program began in 1996 with the goal of launching initial satellites in 2004 at a cost of $4.2 billion. Since then the program has been restructured several times, with a price tag that now exceeds $11 billion.
The Reuters report quoted a second defense official who said existing DSP satellites built by Northrop were performing well and had a "reasonable probability of remaining OK."
However, he admitted that the U.S. military preferred higher levels of redundancy, and acknowledged that the September failure raised the possibility of a gap in coverage, particularly if other satellites experience a premature failure.
"Although we have generally done well, spacecraft do get older and sooner or later they fail, or we take action to get them out of the way," the source told Reuters.
But the first defense official told Reuters he was not convinced the threat was so urgent, and said that some might be using the latest failure to win additional funding for space programs during a challenging budget environment.
Indeed, the Pentagon has already sought an additional $117 million from Congress this fiscal year for a new satellite to hedge against potential gaps in satellite coverage around 2014.
Many other military space programs centered on improving communications have seen their budgets cut sharply in recent years by defense officials and lawmakers after experiencing technical problems and cost overruns.
And budget pressures may become worse in coming years amid costly financial bailouts and growing bills to replace worn out equipment from Afghanistan and Iraq.
Both of the Reuters sources were concerned that the incoming Obama administration would not make military space programs a high priority, considering their high cost and previous problems.
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