Apophis and Us
Posted on: Friday, 5 August 2005, 12:02 CDT
While the shuttle is in space and our attention is tilted upward, it's worth thinking about what else is up there, especially an asteroid named 99942 Apophis. When this object was first discovered last year, astronomers estimated that it had a distant chance of striking Earth in 2029. After closer observation, it seems likely that this asteroid a little more than 300 meters, or 1,000 feet, in diameter will still pass very near our planet, but without striking it. There is still a possibility, however, that as it swings by it may hit a gravitational "keyhole," shifting its orbit far enough to make it strike Earth in 2036.
Beyond the question of whether Apophis deserves to be added to our regular list of doomsday worries, there's the practical matter of whether we can do anything about it. Hollywood heroics trying to blast it out of the sky might do more harm than good. NASA scientists think they have the technology to safely give it a nudge that might shift the orbit a little. The trick is figuring out exactly when the asteroid will be in the exact place where such a modest bump would be effective.
One possibility is to put a radio beacon on the asteroid. That would let astronomers refine their predictions of the asteroid's potential orbit when it next approaches Earth, in 2012-2013. Given NASA's recent success in firing a probe at the comet Temple I, planting a beacon on an asteroid seems feasible.
You don't need to be a science-fiction writer to see a curious convergence here the approach of a possibly Earthbound asteroid and the emergence of the scientific and technological capacity to cope with it. That, of course, is merely coincidence. Time will tell whether the risk from 99942 Apophis increases or whether it diminishes naturally, its orbit deforming, away from harm, in ways that are well within the realm of probability.
Source: International Herald Tribune
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