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Defence Journal Says Ukraine's Space Launch Programmes Developing Well

Posted on: Sunday, 3 October 2004, 06:00 CDT

Ukraine is developing its share of the space services market with a range of carrier rockets, a specialist defence publication has said. Participation in the Sea Launch programme is going well, and there are good prospects for its land-based equivalent. However, it said that there are problems at present with the promising Ukrainian- Brazilian space launch project. The following is the text of the article by Olha Kalynovska entitled "Ukraine is capable of earning over 100m dollars a year on the space services market" published in the Ukrainian defence magazine Defense Express on 1 September; subheadings are as published:

The space power status that Ukraine has gives it the possibility to attract powerful investment flows to carry out its plans in that area, while the development of the world market for space launch services is stimulating the realization of promising new ideas and projects. According to expert assessments, the annual volume of the market for commercial space launches is put at 69bn dollars. Ukraine's participation in international cooperation in the space services market provides it with [the possibility of] export deliveries worth over 100m dollars annually.

If one were to make a comparative description in general, without delving into details, of the state of Ukraine's space industry at the start of the 90s and now, one would note tangible progress. Over 12 years more than 70 launches of Ukrainian-produced carrier rockets have been carried out and over 150 satellites have been put into orbit in the interests of nine countries. Over that period, the main designer of the country's space rocket industry, the Pivdenne design bureau, has developed several new modifications of carrier rockets. Active work is under way to create more powerful and contemporary rocket engines. A number of agreements have been signed with foreign states in the area of cooperation in space rocketry. Ukraine's space enterprises are participants in the most ambitious project of the last century - Sea Launch. However, if every specific project is subjected to impartial analysis, underwater rocks can be found virtually everywhere. It is not that easy to maintain one's height on this tough market.

Sea Launch - 21st century project

The programme for launching Ukrainian-Russian Zenit-3SL carrier rockets from the sea platform in the Pacific Ocean under the name Sea Launch promised to become the most successful in terms of both profit and popularity at the start of its implementation. An eponymous joint enterprise was engaged in implementing the project. It included the American Boeing company, the Russian Korolev Energiya space rocket corporation, the Norwegian Kvarner shipbuilding firm and leading space rocket enterprises of Ukraine - the state Yanhel Pivdenne design bureau and the Makarov Pivdennyy machine-building plant. A unique space rocket complex was created within the framework of the joint project consisting of marine and rocket segments.

The basis of the idea for Sea Launch was a scheme where a carrier rocket is launched precisely from the equator, where the earth's rotation becomes an additional natural accelerator. An additional plus of the programme was the fact that during its implementation a problem like the field of fall of spent rocket stages lost its urgency, since the ocean was its field of fall for many kilometers. Here there is no pollution of the ocean, since the Zenit-3SL rocket carrier uses ecologically clean oxygen and kerosene as fuel components.

The uniqueness and originality of the project, combined with lower launch costs than its rivals were intended to ensure it broad popularity and high demand. Thus, according to assessments from the national institute of Ukrainian-Russian relations of the National Security and Defence Council, the cost of launching a European Ariane-type rocket is about 80m dollars, and American NASA specialists rate their services at 100m-120m dollars. The cost of putting goods into orbit with a Zenit is half as expensive as the French and a third that of the Americans.

The project did gain popularity. However, during the programme's implementation, instead of the six or seven launches that the Sea Launch participants had counted on, the rocket took payloads into space three or four times a year. To date, starting from 1999, there have been 14 Zenit-3SL launches. The current situation, Pivdenne specialists emphasize, is in no way connected with the rocket's technical characteristics. In the experts' opinion, there is now an unfavourable situation on the launch services market, as a result of which the general dynamic of launches leaves much to be desired. Virtually all the operators on the market are experiencing a shortage of orders. However, this is a temporary phenomenon, specialists say, connected with the fact that recently the technical level of creating space devices has risen considerably, in connection with which there has been an increase in the length of their exploitation in orbit. "When the technical resources of space devices launched in the 80s start to be exhausted, there will be a considerable burst of demand on the launch services market. Then the market will settle down again until the next burst," a Pivdenmash expert claims.

The problems existing on the market have not stopped participants in the project. Today the Pivdenne design bureau, in cooperation with Energomash (Khimki, Russia) and other organizations in the corporation, is working on introducing an improved engine for the first stage of Zenit-3SL. As early as next year it is planned to start manufacture of carrier rockets fitted with the new engine, which will make it possible to increase the mass of the payload (it is now over six tonnes). What is more, despite rumours being spread, the American Boeing corporation remains loyal to the Sea Launch project. According to statements from the head of the corporation's military-space sub-department, (?Jim Olbo), the project is "a splendid example" of wide-scale systems integration that is operating "really very, very well". Among other things, (?Olbo) recognized that the market for space launches at present is experiencing extremely difficult times caused by a headlong reduction of orders because of a slump in the area of telecommunications. He said that the reasons why Boeing was staying in the business were explained by the enormous capital investment that the corporation had made. Here (?John Olbo) noted that the corporation would continue the Sea Launch project until it recoups its outlay.

Despite such restrained statements by Boeing representatives, in fact the American company has decided not to keep "afloat" as (?Olbo's) words imply, but to develop an advantageous project. Confirmation of this is the signing by the Sea Launch company management and International Space Services this winter of a contract on joint implementation of a new project, "Ground Launch", which will be a sort of extension of the Sea Launch project. So far as can be judged, the Sea Launch partners are living for tomorrow and waiting for the next burst of activity in the commercial space market.

Ground Launch - new wine in old bottles

The Ground Launch project envisages launches of the Zenit-3SL rocket, known from the Sea Launch project, only in its "ground" option. To put it more simply, considering limitations on launches of the "sea" option of Zenit-type rockets (the numerical limitations on Zenit-3SL launches because of difficulties in transporting the rockets to the launch site in the Pacific Ocean amount to six or seven launches a year), project participants decided to increase the frequency of launches by using the same rocket adapted for "ground" conditions at the Baykonur cosmodrome. The new rocket will be called Zenit-3SLB. The fact that, in connection with the active exploitation at the Kazakhstan cosmodrome of the Zenit-2 carrier rocket (over a period of almost 20 years, over 30 launches have been made), existing launch sites at Baykonur for this type of rocket carrier will significantly ease work on creating the launch infrastructure for the Zenit-3SLB is also attractive.

Funding of the project is being carried out on a fully commercial basis. However, unlike Sea Launch, the financial provision for the ground-based analogue has been taken on by CIS investors, in particular the Russian financial commercial company, Energoaviakosmos. The amount of investments that must be made even before the start of Zenit carrier rocket launches is put at 20-25m dollars. These funds will be going on delivery and installation of equipment for a launch complex at Baykonur cosmodrome. It is expected that marketing of the project on the Western market will be carried out by Sea Launch and on CIS spaces by International Space Services [ISS]. (ISS includes Ukrainian enterprises - Pivdenne design bureau and Pivdennyy machine-building plant - and the Russian transport machine-building design bureau and the centre for exploitation of ground-based space infrastructure). It is planned to make the first launch of the new rocket as early as 2005. The Pivdenmash management stresses that the popularity and high reliability of the Zenit-3SL should ensure a solid portfolio of orders for the new project.

It is not ruled out, specialists claim, that the Zenit-3SLB will substantially squeeze the European Ariane rockets on the space launches market. The president of the Sea Launch consortium, (?Jim Mazer), has spoken of the interest of at least six major clients in Ground Launch. They include Alcatel, Boeing and several communications operators.

The benefit from implementing the new programme for Ukraine and Russia lies first and foremost in additional production work for enterprises taking part in the project. Implementing Ground Start will allow Pivdenmash to produce 10-15 new rockets a year instead of five to seven. The idea took the fancy of the Americans because launches in the Sea Launch project envisage putting space devices weighing from 4.5-6 t into orbit, i.e. heavy ones.

However, an attractive niche has recently formed for medium satellites weighing 1.5-3.2 t, and this market in future promises to be seriously expanded. And the commercially oriented Americans cannot let slip such a possibility of making money.

"Satan" in peaceful application

The Dnipro carrier rocket occupies a special place among Pivdenne's rocket complexes. Broad possibilities for conversion have been demonstrated on its example. The Dnipro space rocket complex is created on the basis of the world's most powerful ICBM, the RS-20 (the SS-18 "Satan" missile in American nomenclature), which are to be scrapped. The Dnipro programme is based on over 150 RS-20 missiles suitable for re-equipment as carrier rockets and which have silo-type launch complexes at Baykonur cosmodrome with all the necessary equipment.

The operator of payload launches into orbit using Dnipro rockets is the international Kosmotras space company, formed in 1997 by enterprises of the space rocket industries of Ukraine and Russia with support from the countries' national space agencies and government bodies.

The main merit and at the same time shortcoming of the Dnipro programme is the specific feature of payload launches. The Dnipro is capable of putting in orbit at heights of 300-800 km space devices with a mass of 3.7 t, but they must only be cluster launches, i.e. the simultaneous launching into orbit of over five space devices. The advantage of such exploitation is that putting several space devices into orbit at once in the interests of various countries considerably reduces the overall cost of the launch. The cost of a cluster launch amounts to about 6-8m dollars, while it costs 10,000- 12,000 dollars per kg to launch a space device. At the same time, in order to carry out such a launch, the Kosmotras company has to collect enough orders, agree the preparation of every satellite and balance the launch time for all the devices. Practice has shown that the process takes a fairly long time, and so the frequency of Dnipro launches does not exceed one or two a year. What is more, it not infrequently happens that, because of the technical malfunction of one of the satellites, launch of the rocket is delayed indefinitely.

Until recently, only four orbital launches of Dnipro had been carried out from Baykonur putting 20 satellites into orbit. The launch clients included space companies from Great Britain, the USA, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Germany. This year, space experts say, another Dnipro launch is planned, bringing the total number of space devices launched up to 27, it is expected. Considering expert evaluations of the demand for Dnipro on the launch services market (in the period 2004-2008 demand may amount to 16-18 launches), the programme has room to develop. Moreover, the absence of direct rivals to Dnipro and the big potential for development of the market of cluster launches are drawing increasing attention to the project from potential clients.

The plans of Dnipro users include a modification that could allow it to carry out deep space flights. It is planned to achieve this by creating an autonomous space tug (AST). The AST is being developed as a means allowing maximum use of the potential of the RS-20 missile to put payloads into near-earth orbit and also departure orbits towards the moon and Mars to points of libration. It is planned to develop two basic AST modifications and, in the event of orders, an intermediate modification. In particular, for a departure trajectory towards the moon it is envisaged to use the basic Dnipro- 1 carrier rocket with an AST in four stages consisting of an orbital engine installation working on liquid fuel components (orbital EI) and a tool module with on-board service systems. Launch of the payload on to departure trajectories towards the moon will be carried out as follows: putting the payload of the basic Dnipro-1 into primary orbit at a height of 300 km, with inclination of orbit of 64.6 degrees; launch of the orbital EI of the AST-3 on to departure orbit towards the moon.

From the commercial viewpoint, such launches, considering the possibilities of our carrier, will cost comparatively little, representatives of the space industry say. According to the general director of National Space Agency of Ukraine, Oleksandr Nehoda, agency specialists have already carried out relevant negotiations with colleagues from Russia and have drawn up a preliminary plan according to which by the end of next year it is planned to create such a modification and carry out flight tests on it.

Cyclone-4 - best carrier rocket developed by Pivdenne design bureau

Big prospects, according to Ukrainian rocket designers, are expected for the new Ukrainian-Brazilian Cyclone-4 Alcantara project. The general director of the Pivdenne design bureau, Stanislav Konyukhov, said in an interview that all the best that the bureau had learned over many years of creating space rocket technology had been pout into the Ukrainian-Brazilian Cyclone-4 project.

The energy potential of the Cyclone -4 carrier rocket makes it possible to put a space device into equatorial orbit at a height of 500 km or a group of space devices with a mass of up to 5.5 kg and one with a mass of 1.8 kg into an orbit transitional to geostationary. This is achieved by using the third stage with a threefold increased (compared with the third stage of Cyclone-3) reserve of fuel components and a high mass perfection that makes it possible to raise the rocket's power and reduce the longitudinal load. The third stage engine has the possibility of multiple switching, which provides qualitatively new possibilities, including group release of space devices. Cyclone-4 uses a high precision control system making use of a satellite navigation system (GPS).

An important advantage of Cyclone-4 is automation of work with the carrier rocket at the launch complex, which ensures complete safety for the staff. Special attention when developing Cyclone-4 was paid to ecological security. Technical decisions make it possible completely to exclude emissions of noxious components of rocket fuel into the environment at all stages of using the complex. It is assumed that realization of the project will provide the possibility of conducting 6-10 launches of Cyclone-4 per annum. And the average launch cost will be half the cost of launching rockets of a similar class.

The initial stage of negotiations with the Brazilians regarding realization of the project cannot be called easy. Starting in 1997, when Pivdenne started talks with the Brazilian space agency about the possibility of launching the new Cyclone-4 carrier rocket from the Brazilian Alcantara launch centre, it was intended that the Italian Fiat-Avia and the Brazilian Infraero companies would take part in the project. However, at the time there was no legal field to implement the project at an interstate level, and work in such a composition had to be halted.

Now all the necessary documentation on the Ukrainian side for launching the project is ready. A framework agreement has now been signed between the Ukrainian government and the government of the Federative Republic of Brazil on cooperation in the use of space for peaceful purposes. An agreement has been signed and ratified on defending technologies connected with the participation of Ukraine in launches from the Alcantara launch site. At the beginning of this year the Ukrainian Supreme Council [parliament] ratified a treaty between Ukraine and the Federative Republic of Brazil on long-term cooperation to use the Cyclone-4 carrier rocket at the Alcantara launch centre.

It was assumed that after confirmation of that document, Ukraine and Brazil would be able to start direct creation of the joint Ukrainian-Brazilian enterprise, Alcantara-Cyclone-Space, which in future will be carrying out exploitation and launches of the Cyclone- 4 from the Alcantara cosmodrome in the Brazilian state of Maranhao. It was planned to distribute work on implementing the project as follows: Ukraine would develop the carrier rocket and ground-based technological equipment for the carrier rocket's technical complex, the technical complex of the space device and head section, as well as for the launch complex. The Brazilian side would carry out construction and assembly of the facilities to house technological equipment and general technical systems to adapt Cyclone-4 for the Alcantara launch centre.

The overall cost of the project is 180m dollars, which it is planned to recoup in four years of exploiting the cosmodrome. Each side has to finance its part of the work. Our development and manufacture of Cyclone-4 is partly financed by the state - the 2004 state budget set aside 70m hryvnyas to implement the Cyclone-4- Alcantara project and 10m hryvnyas to reduce the cost of loans intended for the project. It is planned to get the rest of the money as credit resources under Ukrainian government guarantee.

However, after the theoretical distribution of work and approval of plans, further moves on the project are not foreseen. The reason is the delay in schedule of ratification of the necessary international documents, in particular a treaty on long-term cooperation to use the Cyclone-4 carrier rocket at the Alcantara launch centre on Brazil's part. For over six months a representative of the National Space Agency of Ukraine responsible for implementing the project has been in Brazil to solve this question, but the situation so far has not changed.

The roots of the problem, experts believe, come from the Russian side, which, after the realization of the Ukrainian-Brazilian Cyclone-4-Alcantara project, started to show an active interest in that Latin American country. Confirmation of this is the recent statement by the head of the Russian Federal Space Agency (RFSA), Anatoliy Perminov, that Russia has recently especially activated its joint projects with Brazil and that the Russian Federation needed to participate more boldly in joint projects with states of the region. In Perminov's opinion, the start of exploitation of the new Russian Soyuz complex in Kourou [French Guiana] will provide the possibility for all countries, including in Latin America, to take a more active part in carrying out launches of space devices.

Ukraine regards with apprehension, and not without grounds, the development of the Russo-French project to launch the new Soyuz carrier rocket from the Kourou cosmodrome. And even though the Russian project is also experiencing quite a few problems, basically of a financial nature, judging by statements from the leadership of the space agency, things are moving ahead for them, albeit slowly. In the view of RFSA representatives, the first clients for satellite launches with the help of the Soyuz carrier rocket from Kourou cosmodrome in French Guiana already exist. And by 2006, when it is planned to complete the creation of the new launch complex in Kourou, the first launches will take place. It is not ruled out that after the launch of the Soyuz-Kourou project, Russia will try to get Brazil on to its side, since getting one Latin American country involved in the project as a partner means the automatic joining of several others, in particular Argentina, which is already conducting negotiations both with Ukraine and with Russia on development of its domestic space segment.

Despite big problems in the Cyclone-4-Alcantara project, there is one consolation. Brazil, which has the right of choice, has still stayed with Ukraine on the Cyclone-4 rocket. At one time, the Brazilian space agency held talks with US companies such as Lockheed, Boeing and Orbital Science and the Russian Khrunichev rocket centre. But for various technical and commercial reasons the negotiations were halted. It turned out that precisely Cyclone-4 in the class of launched space devices responded to Brazil's requirements and was the optimum in all technical aspects. Closeness to the equator and the presence of a broad spectrum of azimuths of launch make it possible to carry out a large part of the programme of commercial launch services that currently exist on the world market. Apart from that, the Cyclone-4 is considered a high reliability rocket that is provided with the continuity of the development of Cyclone-4 on the basis of the Cyclone-2 carrier rocket, Cyclone-3 and a total number of launches from the Baykonur and Plesetsk cosmodromes amounting to 224 with an indicator of five failures.

To a large extent the Brazilian choice is also connected with the cost of implementing the project, which, for the Russians, it is not hard to guess, is considerably higher than for us. For example, comparing the Cyclone-4-Alcantara and Soyuz-Kourou projects, Pivdenne specialists note that "relocating" the Russian Soyuz carrier rocket to the Kourou cosmodrome in French Guiana costs twice as much as adapting the Cyclone-4 for the Alcantara cosmodrome.

Ukraine-Europe: friendship at a distance

One Ukrainian publication compared our country's relationship with the EU with an 18th century dance in which the couple never dance together. The same can be said about the relationship between Ukraine and Europe in the space sector. Despite the fact that at one time Ukraine and European countries took part in implementing joint projects, in particular in the Variant, Interbol, Spektr, TACIS, INTAS programmes etc, there was never a special rapprochement. In the opinion of experts, it is not worth counting on such a rapprochement in the area of space launches, since in that sector of the space market we are direct competitors with the European programme of carrier rocket launches like Ariane. The most that Ukraine can count on is cooperation in the sphere of conducting joint scientific research. In practice this means participation of our state in the European initiative for global monitoring of the environment and security (GMES) and the Galileo project.

At the same time, our state does have a chance of "going into Europe in a Trojan horse", as Pivdenne chief Konyukhov noted. Ukraine's participation in the European project to create carrier rockets of the Vega type is regarded as a "Trojan horse". This winter representatives of Ukraine's space industry signed a contract for the development, qualification and delivery of a fourth stage (?marching) engine for the European Vega carrier rocket. In accordance with the agreements signed, Ukraine undertook to supply Italy each year with five or six low thrust liquid fuel engines starting from 2005.

The Vega carrier was developed to take satellites with a mass of up to 1,200 kg to a solar synchronous orbit at 1,200 km or satellites of 1,500 kg mass to a polar orbit of 700 km. The rocket consists of three solid fuel stages and a fourth liquid fuel stage. It is 30m high with a starting mass of 130 t. Vega's first flight is planned for the end of 2006 from the European cosmodrome at Kourou in French Guiana. Apart from Ukraine, Italy (its proportion is 65 per cent), Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Spain Sweden and Switzerland are taking part in the project.

Another Ukrainian-European project - the creation jointly with the European Space Agency of light and medium carrier rockets of the Mayak type - is so far doomed to wait. And although the Pivdenne design bureau is quietly moving ahead with its implementation, independently creating a new carrier rocket, Europe is in no hurry to join the new programme. A design bureau representative said, "so far we are making calculations and looking at each other. This programme requires money injections, but the main priority of the design bureau today is the Cyclone-4-Alcantara project, and so we cannot independently solve all the questions in the programme." What is more, considering the fact that Ukraine does not have its own cosmodrome, launches of Mayak carrier rockets will be carried out from foreign territory, for which funding is also needed. Europe's cool attitude to the project is understandable - both the development and creation of the rocket are basically to be carried out by the forces of Ukrainian enterprises - with partial involvement of European space structures. And Europe is not used to such approaches.

And yet, Ukraine is stubbornly continuing to present models of the Mayak type at various exhibitions and presentations. There is a rational kernel here: it is possible that one of the countries that is now stepping up its activity in the space sector will take an interest in such a development and partly take on funding obligations for its realization.

The new carrier rockets were created with the purpose of application in those transport operations where the use of domestic rockets of the Zenit and Cyclone type is impossible or unprofitable. According to the existing blueprint, there are two basic rockets in the new Mayak family: Mayak-12, a two-stage light class carrier with a body diameter of three metres (this size is typical of the production line of Cyclone) and a cargo capacity of about three tonnes, which is capable of putting a payload of up to 1.5 t on to solar synchronous orbit at a height of 800 km. There is also the Mayak-23, a three-stage medium class carrier with a body diameter of 3.9m (along the line of the Zenit production line) that is capable of delivering satellites weighing up to three tonnes to transitional geostationary orbit.

Breaking into space

Despite the fact that there are about 100 countries in the world engaged in space activity, only some of them can lay claim to world leadership. If we look at the statistics of participation in international space programmes and the development of infrastructure for production of carrier rockets and satellites, then Ukraine is on the list of the four or five most developed space states in the world (after the USA, Russia, France and possibly China). Since the start of the current year Ukrainian carrier rockets Zenit-2, Zenit- 3SL and Dnipro have made four journeys into space, putting in orbit 12 satellites in total. Altogether in the current year, according to information from the National Space Agency of Ukraine, eight carrier rocket launches are planned, including two launches in the Sea Launch programme and a launch of Cyclone-3 with a domestic mini- satellite and a Sich-1M satellite.

If one bears in mind the fact that on average the number of launches per year amounts to about 60, the share of Ukraine on the space launch market varies between 10 and 12 per cent. But this is a "crude" share, since in all space projects there are from two (the Dnipro programme) to five (Sea Launch) participants. So, while in the project for launches of the Dnipro conversion missile Ukraine's share amounts to at least 50 per cent, in Sea Launch it amounts to no more than 15 per cent. Therefore, Ukraine's "net" share of this market is so far counted in single percentage figures. Such a situation, considering the difficulties in moving ahead with the Cyclone-4-Alcantara project and the initial stage of implementing the Ground Launch project, will most likely be observed in the coming two to three years.

At the same time, if Brazil sorts out its priorities and continues to implement the Cyclone-4-Alcantara project, within two or three years, having completed the preparatory stage, the Cyclone- 4 may join the sea Zenits, the conversion Dnipro and the rare launches of the Cyclone-3 and Zenit-2. Considering the high reliability and excellent features of this carrier, along with its low launch cost, Ukraine can count on a realistic five or six launches a year (in theory it looks somewhat more colourful - 6- 10), thereby raising the "crude" share of the market to 15-20 per cent. The real share will also rise, possibly to 4-5 per cent.

Ukraine may gain another couple of "net" percentage points from Ground Launch. At one time experts were forecasting 17 per cent of the commercial launches market for Sea Launch. These forecasts may become reality on condition of a parallel realization of two analogous programmes - Sea Launch and Ground Launch. In theory the Zenit-3SL may make 5-7 launches year and the Zenit-3SLB is calculated for the same number of launches. A combination of the number of launches of the two Zenit type missiles may provide an additional increase in the share of the space market. However, that is theory. It differs from practice in that, as a rule, it does not take into account the large number of difficulties on the way to implementing the theoretical part of a programme. The narrowest place in an expansion of positions on the market of space services is the hardness and solidity of the market itself, very reminiscent of the arms market. Where there are no friends and anything goes in the struggle. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian-Brazilian project has already shown how hard the partner's policy can be if his interests are left outside the borders of visibility. Russia is Ukraine's closest rival on the market, occupying between 20 and 25 per cent ("crude" share) according to various estimates on the space services market.

At present the USA and Western Europe are fighting for basic control of the space sector. (Let us recall if only Sea Launch, where the American Boeing company controls the basic part of the programme). And, judging from America's space plans regarding crewed flights to Mars and even hopes to put settlers there, that state does not intend in the near future to yield its positions as leader on the world space market to anyone. However, analysts agree that the future of that market lies with associations. This has already been proved by Sea Launch, and is being proved by the plans of Russia and France (the Soyuz-Kourou project), of Ukraine and Brazil (Cyclone-4-Alcantara) and the participants in Ground Launch. Because it is easier, as popular wisdom has it, to overturn mountains together. And even more so to conquer the stars.

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