Is the Internet Doomed to Self-Destruct?

By Castelluccio, Michael

THE INTERNET EXPLODED LIKE FEW other tech revolutions, and the digital clouds are still swirling with no indication of settling soon. But there’s a problem. According to Jonathan Zittrain, professor of Internet Governance and Regulation at Oxford University, England, the seeds of the Net’s destruction are being sown in the same wind streams that are now scattering its influence. In a recent article in the Harvard Business Review ("Saving the Internet"), Zittrain describes a situation that seems to be scripted into the Internet’s future. The need to protect the user from viruses, scams, spam, and porn will lead to what the professor calls "tethered appliances" that forego most of the freedoms we now have with our PCs and the world network. A tethered appliance is a locked- down piece of hardware that you can do nothing with except what is designed as its primary purpose. Tivo is an example. And although your control over the device is minimized, the manufacturer might be able to modify the device remotely, perhaps even without your knowing.

In his article, Zittrain presents an historical overview that seems to portend a radically different future for PCs and the Internet. Before the PC, there was the microcomputer – a descendant of the mainframe. The microcomputer was owned by the company, programmed by the manufacturer and then the owner, and the system was essentially a closed one-proprietary. Then came the PC-a "personal" machine with an open structure. It was the owner who would add programs or attach peripherals. In order to do this, the machine had to be designed in a way that made it vulnerable others- not just the owner, but also hackers and spammers. You could load programs yourself, but then again you could also load Trojan horses and viruses that would render your machine a spam-forwarding zombie in a worldwide network of spambots. Being open also allowed tinkering and experimentation that produced "contributions from anyone who cared to pitch in." This quality, which Zittrain calls generativity, fueled the development of the PC along wildly innovative lines.

The Internet, too, evolved its own open architecture when it was released by research scientists in 1991. The universities that originally nurtured the network opened up their experiment to personal and commercial connections, and a new sun began to rise in the digital world.

At first, many thought the proprietary systems from AOL, CompuServe, and Prodigy would lock down the new network, but, as Zittrain explains, "[These proprietary networks] were crushed by a bailingwire-and-twine network built by government researchers and computer scientists, one that had no CEO and no master business plan." It was our Internet, and it was generative, taking twists and turns, exploding with unanticipated new techniques, uses, and destinations developed by thousands of tinkerers.

Zittrain sums up the value of the two forces this way: "The core boon and bane of the combined Internet and PC is its generativity; its accessibility to people all over the world-people without particular credentials or wealth or connections-who can use and share the technology’s power for various ends, many of which were unanticipated or, if anticipated, would never have been thought to be valuable."

Examples of innovation created by PC/Internet generativity include some of the online giants. eBay leads a long list of successful ventures begun not by large corporations but by "individuals or small groups wanting to solve their own problems or try something neat." Also on Zittrain’s list is Craigslist, an online classified designed by a single individual that has swept away a revenue stream newspapers have always relied on. There’s also free Webbased e-mail, hosting for personal Web pages, instant- messaging software, social networking, and even the search engine Google, begun by two students in a dorm room.

Deja vu

But now, it seems, we’re headed back toward proprietary, locked- down hardware and gated networks as users continue to make "poor choices about what code to run." They open infected e-mails and download free music or wallpaper that comes loaded with Spyware or worse. And although the most notorious viruses have had relatively nondestructive payloads, there’s the real possibility of a MyDoom- like worm that could erase or scramble hard drives. The fvlyDoom infection took only three days to propagate to where it was responsible for 30% of all e-mail traffic worldwide. If it had had a more dangerous script on board that attacked data on your PC1 you probably wouldn’t have forgotten its name today.

So what’s the problem with turning over control of hardware and the network to manufacturers and providers who would exercise more caution and more proprietary control? According to Zittrain, big firms are prone to suffering from innovative inertia. He cites Clayton Christensen’s reason for this. The problem is twofold: "Big firms have ongoing investments in their existing markets and in established ways of doing business, and disruptive innovations often capture only minor less-profitable markets-at first. By the time the big firms recognize the threat, they are not able to adapt." Might it even be possible that a proprietary firm would decide to prevent generativity because it’s a threat to their comfort and well-being and the benefits wouldn’t provide large enough returns?

And Zittrain believes the balance between the two spheres, tethered appliances and the Internet and PC, is beginning to lean toward appliances. He warns, "If the PC ceases to be at the center of the information technology ecosystem, the most restrictive aspects of information appliances will become commonplace." At that point, there’s the risk that "users will unwittingly trade away the future benefits of generativity, a loss that may go unappreciated even as innovation tapers off."

There are ways that the generative Internet can be saved. Users need to become more responsible and respectful of others, ISPs have to do what they can to avoid problems like zombie networks, and providers of content have to maintain network neutrality so there aren’t faster, premium pipelines developed and owned by proprietary concerns. Also, developers have to keep their applications open so others can build on their interfaces no matter the hardware or software.

Jonathan Zittrain’s book, The Future of the Internet and How to Stop It, is scheduled to be released in May 2008. Check www.yalebooks.com.

Michael Castelluccio, Editor

Copyright Institute of Management Accountants Aug 2007

(c) 2007 Strategic Finance. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.