A Downturn Will Find Out Our Strengths and Weaknesses
By Gaffney, John
Gaffney on America Economic downturns start with whispers. But whispers are hard to hear. In a media landscape like this one, the average person is shouted at so often that even the most insightful and informed analysis is drowned in the din. That’s why most people in the US were shocked when the mortgage crisis led to the credit crisis and then to the employment crisis and ….you know the rest. They couldn’t hear anything that didn’t have a celebrity attached to it or a breaking news banner at the bottom.
What I don’t hear as an accompanying whisper over here though is any evidence of an advertising downturn. No blog postings of doom and gloom. No big brand execs threatening ad budget cuts. There’s an economic downturn coming in the US. You can’t have a bursting housing bubble and avoid one. It will be a tipping point for internet advertising. A stress test for interactive tactics, mobile included. And the interactive model will come through stronger than anyone thinks.
This will be the first economic correction since the web found its new marketing legs. Maybe those new legs are built on the strength of SEM. But maybe the downturn will force more brands to look beyond search. Economic downturns may not always bring an overall spending decline, but they always bring an increase in ROI analysis. SEM stands up here. So do integrated online-offline strategies. For that matter, so does mobile, even in its test phases.
With a tighter watch on ROI, I also expect this downturn to bring a much-needed stabilisation for the content scene. Any questions about the effectiveness of advertising on fringe blogs, irrelevant social media or redundant content web sites should be silenced. It’s time to spend serious money on sites that have a decent and trustworthy track record. Or, at least, it’s time to measure new sites by their commitment to a long-term business plan. Internet marketing and internet content go hand in hand now. That grip will become tighter in a downturn.
Maybe the internet as a medium will come through leaner and meaner when the dust clears on the next economic cycle. Nothing wrong with that. Under any kind of pressure, the companies with good leadership and solid business models usually win. The pressure will come. The brands and content providers that should win, will win big.
Maybe the downturn will force more brands to look beyond search. Downturns may not always bring an overall spending decline, but they always bring an increase in ROI analysis
John Gaffney is executive director of Peppers and Rogers Group
Email: John.gaffney@haymarket.com
Copyright Haymarket Business Publications Ltd. Oct 2007
(c) 2007 Revolution. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.