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Analyst Predicts Demise Of The Computer Mouse

Posted on: Thursday, 17 July 2008, 11:30 CDT

Although it has had a good run, the computer mouse may be on its way out, according to Gartner analyst Steve Prentice.

The transition could occur within the next three to five years, Prentice said, meanwhile ushering in computer mechanisms such as touch screens and facial recognition devices that will respond to gestures rather than clicks and swipes.

"The mouse works fine in the desktop environment but for home entertainment or working on a notebook it's over," declared analyst Steve Prentice.

He said his prediction is driven by the efforts of consumer electronics firm which are making products with new interactive interfaces inspired by the world of gaming .

"You've got Panasonic showing forward facing video in the home entertainment environment. Instead of using a conventional remote control you hold up your hand and it recognizes you have done that," he said.

"It also recognizes your face and that you are you and it will display on your TV screen your menu. You can move your hand to move around and select what you want," he added.

"Sony and Canon and other video and photographic manufacturers are using face recognition that recognizes your face in real time," he said. "And it recognizes even when you smile."

"You even have emotive systems where you can wear a headset and control a computer by simply thinking and that's a device set to hit the market in September."

"This" Mr Prentice said, "is all about using computer power to do things smarter."

But mice making companies disagree with Prentice’s speculations.

"The death of the mouse is greatly exaggerated," said Rory Dooley senior vice president and general manager of Logitech's control devices unit.

Logitech has made huge profits by selling more than 500 million mice and keyboards over the last 20 years.

Dooley said that number shows “just how important a device the mouse is.”

He also acknowledged that Logitech was already manufacturing new ways for people to interact with their personal computers.

"People have been talking about convergence for years," he said. "Today's TV works as a computer and today's computer works as a TV.”

“The devices we use have been modified for our changing lifestyles but it doesn't negate the value of the mouse," Mr Dooley explained.

Invented 40 years ago by Dr. Douglas Engelbart while working for the Stanford Research Institute, the mouse has become a mainstay in homes and offices across the world.

Engelbart never received any royalties for the invention partly because his patent ran out in 1987 before the PC revolution made the mouse indispensable.

With a 40 year anniversary planned for later in the year, Mr Dooley said Gartner's prediction for the mouse was too gloomy given that the developing world has still to get online.

"The mouse will be even more popular than it is today as a result," he suggested.

"Bringing technology, education and information to these parts of the world will be done by accessing web browsers and doing that in the ways that we are familiar with today and that is using a mouse.

"There are around one billion people online but the world's population is over five billion," he said.

Gartner’s Prentice said one would only have to look at the success of Nintendo’s Wii console and Apple’s iPhone to see how millions are already using gestures to control their machines.

"With the Wii you point and shake and it vibrates back at you so you have a two-way relationship there.

"The new generation of smart phones like the iPhone all now have tilting mechanisms or you can shake the device to do one or more things.

"Even the multi-touch interface is so much more powerful and flexible than in the past allowing you to zoom in, scroll quickly or contract images."

However, Mr Prentice did concede that the keyboard was here to stay for the foreseeable future.

"For all its faults, the keyboard will remain the primary text input device," he said. "Nothing is easily going to replace it. But the idea of a keyboard with a mouse as a control interface is the paradigm that I am talking about breaking down."

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On the Net:

• Stanford Research Institute International
• Gartner
• Logitech

Source: redOrbit Staff & Wire Reports

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