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Summer Air Travel Likely to Be Hot; Experts Predict Fliers Will Return to Skies at Pre-9/11 Levels; Delays Anticipated

Posted on: Friday, 1 July 2005, 18:00 CDT

PORTLAND -- This could be the summer air travel returns to pre-9/ 11 levels and, with it, pre-9/11 flight delays.

"Expect congestion and delays this summer. The airplanes are full," said David Stempler, president of the Air Travelers Association in Washington, D.C. "Pack some food, reading material; hope for the best and prepare for the worst."

Flight delays plagued air travelers in the summer of 2000. Approximately 30 percent of domestic flights arrived late that August, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Then air travel slumped because of a recession and in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist hijackings.

With fares low and airlines able to boast that flying has never been safer, the Federal Aviation Administration predicts air travel will rebound to pre-9/11 form this year, with approximately 710 million passengers flying the nation's crowded skies.

Plus, international flights are increasing and a new class of million-dollar "very light jets" -- four- to six-passenger aircraft - - are on the horizon, promising to add to the traffic to manage.

"It's almost like a symphony to match everything together to make the system as efficient as possible," said Scott Speer, the FAA's air traffic manager for Oregon and parts of Washington and California.

"It's extremely complex, and some days it's easier than others," he said. "It's actually a lot of fun."

Prior to 9/11, travel at Portland International Airport reached 13.9 million passengers a year. The number has climbed back up to 13.4 million, with 4 million traveling between Memorial Day and Labor Day, said Port of Portland aviation spokesman Steve Johnson.

Able to accommodate between 40 and 60 arriving airplanes an hour depending on the weather, the airport usually operates at less than full capacity.

According to the Department of Transportation's most recent report on delays, more than 80 percent of PDX flights were on time in April, slightly above the national average.

But delays caused by a thunderstorm over Atlanta or "rush hour" at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport can affect PDX travelers.

Problems ripple across the country as the day goes on.

"There is a cumulative effect," said Jack Evans, a spokesman for the airline industry's Air Transport Association in Washington, D.C. "To minimize the chance of delays, it's always better to fly earlier in the day rather than later in the day."

In April, travelers flying out of Portland between 7 and 8 a.m. left on time 96.7 percent of the time.

On-time departure reached a low of 71.1 percent between 8 and 9 p.m.

The airline industry maintains that weather causes most delays, though the transportation department attributed more delays in April to circumstances within air carriers' control.

Evans said weather problems foul up pilots' schedules or force extra maintenance. Subsequent delays are attributed to maintenance or crew problems. "From our perspective, these are interconnected," he said.

Speer said summer thunderstorms can cause more delays than winter storms.

"The thing about winter is usually the winter (storms) take awhile to develop," he said.

Thunderstorms form fast and can cover hundreds of miles, he said.

"You can't fly through them, you can't fly over them, and you may have to fly hundreds of miles to get around them," he said. "If you look at the nation's airspace as a 3-D chessboard, thunderstorms can take away a big chunk of board and your best moves."

Traffic-smoothing moves

Earlier this year, jets cruising between 29,000 and 41,000 feet reduced their vertical separation from 2,000 to 1,000 feet.

It was like turning a six-lane highway into a 12-lane highway in the sky, shortening times between landings and takeoffs.

Speer said he also expects Portland travelers to benefit by airlines spreading out flights throughout the day at Chicago O'Hare, instead of concentrating them at peak travel times.

Shortening delays at the country's busiest airport "should help lessen the ripple effect of delays throughout the country," he said.

Evans called rearranging flight schedules a "temporary measure." The airline industry advocates building more runways and employing new technology to more efficiently use airspace and runways to accommodate air traffic.

"We respond to the marketplace," Evans said. "The bottom line is that the system has to respond to the demand that's out there."

To keep flights moving, the FAA also will employ "delay triggering." When departures at clogged airports run more than 30 minutes late, flights destined for that airport will be held on the ground in distant cities to give stacked-up planes a chance to takeoff.

"Although, this may mean brief delays for some flights, it helps prevent the massive delays that can occur systemwide when critical airports become gridlocked," Speer said.

Tips to Avoid Airport Delays

Morning travelers are less likely to be delayed by afternoon thunderstorms in the Midwest and elsewhere.

The lightest travel days are Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Saturdays.

Flying direct or avoiding a major hub to make a connection reduces the chance of a delayed flight.

Source: Columbian

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