Global Energy Demand To Climb 44 Percent By 2030
Rapidly industrializing nations like China and Russia are expected to drive up global energy demand by some 44 percent during the next two decades, according to a U.S. governmental energy forecasting agency.
The Energy Information Administration’s report also stated that an expected economic recovery in 2010 will likely cause a swift bounce-back for temporarily depressed energy prices and demand. U.S. oil prices, for example, are expected to nearly double from a $61 dollar a barrel average for this year to $110 by 2015 and $130 by 2030.
In a news conference on Wednesday, EIA acting administrator Howard Gruenspecht said that oil prices will “begin to rise in the 2010-2011 period as the economy rebounds and global demand once again grows more rapidly than non-OPEC liquid supply.”
Over the next 20 years, the agency says global demand for oil will rise from 84 million barrels a day to 107 million bpd, and will constitute roughly 32 percent of the world’s total energy supply by the 2030.
Roughly three quarters of the rising demand for energy will come from developing countries like China, Russia, India and Brazil, stated the report, while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will continue to supply about 40 percent of the global oil output.
The agency predicts that wind, solar and other green energy sources will be the most rapidly expanding sector, contributing 11 percent to global supplies, while ethanol and biodiesel should hit almost 6 million barrels per day by 2030.
The EIA stated that their predictions did not factor in efforts by the U.S. government or potential international agreements to reduce carbon emissions over the coming years.
Gruenspecht added that the agency will be reconsidering and revising their calculations to account for the potential impact of climate change legislation that was approved last week by Congress’ Energy and Commerce Committee.
He expressed doubt, however, that the bill will have much of an immediate effect on energy consumption.
“One could imagine that one could comply at least with the 2020 part of this proposal calling for a 17 percent reduction (from 2005 levels) just using the offsets and not having a significant change in our consumption or the way we use energy at all,” explained Gruenspecht.
The agency’s report added that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase by more than 30 percent to 40 billion metric tons a year if current trends are not derailed by climate change legislation.
The report also noted that the global demand for natural gas is expected to soar to 153 trillion cubic feet, a rise of nearly 50 percent over current levels of consumption.Â
The EIA also added that new production technology in the field of natural gas extraction should bring the U.S. to virtual self-sufficiency in natural gas by 2030.
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