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Future Developments in Transportation

Posted on: Tuesday, 2 August 2005, 12:00 CDT

A recent issue of The Futurist magazine offered some opinions on future developments in (among other things) transportation technology. I found them interesting, and I thought you might as well. So here they are. By 2010, New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt will emerge as transfer points for passengers of high-speed, large- capacity supersonic planes. Airline crashes will decline, and will involve fewer fatalities, thanks to such technical advances as safer seat design and flash-resistant fuels. Following European practice, the US airline industry will begin to replace the spokes of its existing hub-andspoke system with high-speed trains for journeys of 100 to 150 miles. Advances in automobile technology such as road- condition sensors, continuously variable transmissions, automated traffic management systems, night-vision systems and smart seats that tailor airbag inflation to the passenger's weight will all be in common use by 2010. New models of today's hybrid gas-electric cars will begin to win market share from traditional gas-guzzlers between 2005 and 2010. To reduce the number and severity of traffic accidents, trucks on the most heavily used highways will be exiled to car-free lanes, and the separation will be enforced.

Obviously, one can raise objections to many of these opinions. For example, there is no high-speed, large capacity supersonic transport under development (that I know of) for commercial service by 2010. However, the A380 could certainly contribute to the evolution of a relatively small number of mega-hubs around the world tied together by large passenger and cargo aircraft. Similarly, the dearth of high-speed rail passenger service in the United States would seem to make its replacement of short-distance air service unlikely for quite some time. And while you might agree with the notion of hybrid vehicles, the pricing will have to become more rational before there is widespread abandonment of less fuel- efficient vehicles that are cheaper to purchase.

But some implications do make some sense. One of the fastest- growing transport industries is trucking, in part because of the popularity of just-in-time inventory management. This field will grow more efficient as GPS-based truck tracking and other new technologies spread through the industry, however this increased efficiency is a double-edged sword because more trucks mean more highway congestion. In fact, Europe is wrestling with the issue of how to move freight off of the roads and onto rail and inland waterways, when shippers prefer the superior speed, flexibility, and on-time delivery capabilities offered by trucks. Thus, dedicated truck lanes may make sense, both from the viewpoint of the trucking industry and the cardriving public. Similarly, the article suggests that more efficient vehicles, especially hybrid power trains but perhaps even those powered by increasingly sophisticated diesel engines, should begin to reduce the demand for oil by 2008, easing one of the few remaining sources of inflation.

Clearly, improvements in transportation technology will benefit the Defense Transportation System (DTS) as well. Several carriers, including FedEx, have already placed orders for cargo versions of the A380, an aircraft that hopefully will end up in the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) at some point. By the same token, anything that improves the efficiency of the trucking industry will aid in the movement of defense cargo as well as civilians. Perhaps, more than anything, articles such as this serve to remind us how quickly things can change. Even if you vehemently disagree with every one of these predictions, they are, to say the least, thought provoking. For example, ten years ago, who would have believed that the "High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle" would become the high-end Sport Utility Vehicle we know today as the Hummer. As they say, sometimes truth IS stranger than fiction.

Dr. Kent N. Gourdin, Editor DTJ

Director, Global Logistics and Transportation Program

College of Charleston

Copyright National Defense Transportation Association Aug 2005

Source: Defense Transportation Journal

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