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Kagan Forecasts TV Station Deal Market Will Top $3 Bil. In 2005

Posted on: Thursday, 20 October 2005, 09:00 CDT

According to Kagan Research, the TV station deal market has roared back after a two-year slump. Through September 30, total TV deal volume topped $2.75 bil. -- more than 2x the totals for '03 ($1 bil.) and '04 ($1.2 bil.). TV station deals are getting done at solid double-digit multiples, and the second half of 2005 will see an awakened TV station deal market.

Leading the revival is Emmis Comm. Its 16-station group will likely generate proceeds of about $1.3 bil., easily exceeding Wall Street's initial expectations of $1.1 bil. In its latest deal, completed September 29, Emmis sold four stations to affiliates of the Blackstone Group and SJL Broadcasting for $259 mil. In August, Emmis sold nine of its stations for $681 mil. If Emmis closes on its remaining three stations this year, Kagan projects the '05 TV deal market will top $3 bil., its highest level since 2002.

Just published, Kagan's TV STATION DEALS & FINANCE DATABOOK 2006 (its ninth edition) reports that despite media proliferation and the challenges from new technologies such as time-shifting, video-on-demand and rotating premium television schedules, there is still no substitute for local broadcast TV in terms of high-impact delivery of mass audiences.

TV STATION DEALS & FINANCE DATABOOK 2006 examines the economics of the television industry and compiles the most thorough analysis of TV station deals available, disclosing prices and deal multiples for all proposed TV station deals between 12/31/2003 and 3/31/2005. Additionally, the book includes Kagan's exclusive 10-year projections of TV station revenues.

"Looking forward, we have projected TV station revenues will grow an overall 6.9% in 2006 to $23.3 bil. in the normal ramp-up that follows an off year with little-to-no political or Olympics revenues," says Robin Flynn, Kagan senior analyst. "Thereafter, we forecast TV station revenues could increase to $27.4 bil. by 2015 -- a conservative average annual growth rate of 2.3% which takes into account the waxing and waning of even/odd year growth."

Kagan's TV STATION DEALS & FINANCE DATABOOK 2006 offers the sector's best financial and deal perspective with data-backed assessments of TV money markets, venture cap investments, station transfers, broadcast lending, broker rankings, TV deal histories, top buyers and multicultural markets. Other financial features of this exclusive Kagan edition include:

-- Data and analysis of cross-ownership and duopolies

-- Deals for full-power, low-power and stick stations

-- Top brokers in the sector, including sorts by a range of key metrics

-- Stock performance, capitalization and money market data

This year's edition of TV STATION DEALS & FINANCE DATABOOK 2006 reports on the digital transition with a complete database on digital stations in operation, including sorts by owner, DMA and affiliation; delivers an updated impact assessment of FCC rulings and court decisions on TV station markets, revenues and media ownership; and includes the largest and most detailed contact resource for this $22 bil. sector.

For Table of Contents and more information on TV STATION DEALS & FINANCE DATABOOK 2006 visit www.kagan.com/TVDF/101905.

About Kagan Research, LLC.

Kagan Research consulting and publishing services offer exclusive financial data and analysis, relevant market advisories and expert 5- to 10-year projections on cable and DBS, broadcast television and radio, movies, entertainment and sports, digital, wireless and Internet technologies and media finance and law.

Source: Business Wire

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