IEEE Spectrum Refutes Ethernet Inventor's Theory of Communications Network Growth
Posted on: Wednesday, 5 July 2006, 09:00 CDT
NEW YORK, July 5 /PRNewswire/ -- IEEE Spectrum, the Magazine for Technology Insiders reported today that the theory that the value of a communications network is proportional to the square number of its users, first proposed by Ethernet pioneer Robert M. Metcalfe in 1980, is incorrect.
Metcalfe's Law seemed to offer a quantitative explanation for Internet boom mantras such as "network effects," and "first mover advantage," but this could be construed as dangerous in the nascense of Bubble 2.0, as demonstrated by IEEE Spectrum contributors Bob Briscoe, Andrew Odlyzko and Benjamin Tilly. "If there is to be a new, broadband-inspired period of telecommunications growth, it is essential that the mistakes of the 1990's not be reprised.
"The authors compare Metcalfe's Law to other growth curves, including Reed's and Sarnoff's laws, and argue that network growth increases not linearly or exponentially, but logarithmically at a much slower rate. "If Metcalfe's Law were true, it would create overwhelming incentives for all networks relying on the same technology to merge, or at least to interconnect, which would make isolated networks hard to explain. Telecommunications providers need to value their enterprises correctly, and decide if they will be pure providers of connectivity, or make their money by selling or reselling content, such as movies or television."
About IEEE Spectrum
IEEE Spectrum is published monthly by IEEE, the world's largest organization for the advancement of technology. Over 385,000 executives, engineers, and computer scientists at the world's largest companies and universities look to IEEE Spectrum each month for the latest news and most accurate information about new important technology developments. IEEE Spectrum readership comprises the largest concentration of high-tech professionals and senior managers of any publication in its niche. IEEE Spectrum is available by subscription, and on many newsstands throughout the Northeastern United States and online at http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/. Its content includes numerous news stories and features beyond those featured in the print magazine.
IEEE Spectrum
CONTACT: Laura Book of IEEE Spectrum, +1-212-419-7765, l.book@ieee.org
Web site: http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jul06/4109
Source: PRNewswire
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