Consumers Cautious As Vista Debuts: Slow Adoption Seen for Operating System
By Clint Swett, The Sacramento Bee, Calif.
Jan. 30–Xbox 360 it ain’t.
When Microsoft begins selling the consumer version of its new Vista operating system today, don’t expect lines at the store or bidding frenzies on eBay.
While eventually most of the world’s PCs will use the software, experts expect only a gradual adoption of Vista.
“This won’t be an Xbox or Wii event,” said J.P. Gownder, an analyst with Forrester Research, referring to the long lines and inflated prices that accompanied the launch of those video gaming consoles late last year.
“Most consumers will probably get Vista as part of the natural replacement cycle for their PCs,” Gownder said. “And they probably won’t buy a new PC until they have a compelling need.”
Indeed, potential buyers seem to be taking a cautious attitude.
“With all the Windows systems, there’s always a six- to 12-month period where Microsoft is adding all these fixes,” said Joe Barker, a retired computer technician in Lincoln. “I think I will wait (to upgrade) until it’s pretty well stabilized.”
Costing more than $1 billion to develop, Vista is the first new operating system from Microsoft since it released Windows XP in 2001. It contains many graphics and security enhancements, a better search function and improved handling of photos and music.
While those are solid and attractive features, they likely won’t be enough to send people rushing en masse to the stores, said Richard Shim, an analyst with IDC Research in San Mateo.
“There really are no compelling features of Vista that will make people think they must have this system,” Shim said.
Vista, Shim said, isn’t nearly the technological improvement that Windows 95 represented more than a decade ago.
“That enabled people to do the things they really wanted to do, like run multiple applications,” he said.
Sherry McDonald, who manages a senior citizens’ facility in Placerville, said she’s content with her current operating system — Windows XP — and isn’t in any hurry to upgrade. Microsoft released a version of Vista for business late last year.
“I used to be the first one to run down and buy whatever was new,” she said. “But XP seems to cover everything I need. … If Vista’s more stable and secure, I’m all for it. But I don’t feel the need to rush out and buy it.”
Despite such lack of urgency, Microsoft spokeswoman Beth Jordan said the company expects a warm reception from a broad spectrum of consumers.
“It’s a tremendous tool for power users and it’s equally useful for the low-end users,” she said. “We believe the market will respond to a good product.”
On Monday, Microsoft executives, including founder Bill Gates, debuted the new operating system in New York while dancers clad in the company’s colors dangled from ropes high above street level and unfurled flags to form the red, green, blue and yellow Windows logo.
The bare-bones Vista Basic will run on many modern PCs. But to fully exploit the functionality and glitz of the Vista Premium edition, consumers need the memory, processing power and graphics capacity found in the most current and high-end computers.
Prices range from $100 to about $400, depending on the version and whether it’s purchased as an upgrade from Windows XP.
That’s why experts say most consumers won’t change to Vista until they are ready to buy a new PC.
There may be exceptions, however. Likely early buyers will be the more style-conscious user who wants the new features that Vista contains, Gownder said.
Companies like Toshiba and Sony that produce stylish and expensive PCs will likely be early beneficiaries. To a lesser extent, Hewlett-Packard Co. may pick up some customers, but Dell likely will trail — at least initially.
“We don’t figure computer makers will see a gain of more than a few (percentage) points from Vista this year,” Shim said.
Improvements in Vista generally are so subtle they must be experienced by the user, Gownder said. And since Dell only sells computers online, its customers won’t have the opportunity to experience the software before buying the computer.
Retailers around the nation are holding special Vista events today, but none apparently in Sacramento. Circuit City, for instance, has scheduled no such events in California, while Best Buy’s lone Golden State event is in San Diego.
Still, retailers will be doing their part to get buyers out the door with a Vista computer.
Best Buy, for instance, has trained more than 60,000 of its employees on the benefits of Vista, said company spokesman Jeff Dudash.
And it’s not just the computer sales staff. Workers in the digital camera department have been trained in Vista’s photo-editing capabilities. Those in the music department know how Vista handles MP3s.
“The biggest opportunity we see is in the education process,” Dudash said.
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Copyright (c) 2007, The Sacramento Bee, Calif.
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News.
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