Exponential Growth: the Biggest Lie of the Past 10 Years
By Gaffney, John
Gaffney on America I had the privilege of serving on Revolution’s short lifespan in the US. I wish it could have stayed in business after 2000, but it fell victim to the circumstances of the times. I don’t mean the scarcity of ad pages. The I biggest problem during the internet bubble was not the cycle of boom and bust. It was the novel and dangerous concept of ‘exponential growth’.
Exponential growth was the expectation that damned internet marketing to the trenches in the late 90s, and my fear is that nobody has learned from it. I could tick off a dozen companies that signed up then for ridiculous metrics on everything from quarterly growth in new unique users to stock dividends. It was not realistic for the short term. It was not sustainable for the long term. And the worst part was watching Wall Street vultures sign these companies up for ‘exponential growth’ and then literally hold their feet to the fire when the numbers didn’t happen. Internet marketing suffered from the process of a bubble bursting when the bubble was never necessary.
So now we have MySpace and the rest of a new breed of companies that have signed up for exponential growth. Guess what? It won’t work this time either. Google has created a marketing monster, but if you think some other company won’t come up with some smart people and a clever algorithm before the lights are out on 2007, you’re naive. And when those young guns start to fire, the Wall Streeters who can’t believe their good Google fortune will turn on Google with the viper’s venom. The same thing will happen in social networking, mobile marketing and ‘Web 3.0′ applications.
Exponential growth is the worst thing to happen to this business in 10 years, and it is more shadowy than click fraud or back-dating options. It is the stick of dynamite in the internet’s butt. As marketers, we have 10 years to look forward to as mobile marketing, increased interactions and richer communities form more targeted and effective opportunities.
Internet marketing can gain equal footing with print and TV. But the companies that will enable this to happen must grow their customer experience metrics instead of their Wall Street favour. Here’s to hoping that exponential growth goes the way of dial-up.
Exponential growth Is more shadowy than click fraud or back- dating options. It is the stick of dynamite in the internets butt., here’s to hoping exponential growth goes the way of dial-up
John Gaffney is executive director of Peppers and Rogers Group
Email: john.gaffney@ J to 7. com
Copyright Haymarket Business Publications Ltd. Jun 2007
(c) 2007 Revolution. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.