Hordes Expected to Line Up to Buy iPhone, but Experts Advise Waiting Out Hype
By Sanford Nowlin, San Antonio Express-News
Jun. 27–When Apple’s iPhone goes on sale Friday, tech junkies and gadget aficionados are expected to queue up big — and pay up big — to get a crack at the pricy mobile phone that’s become one of the most anticipated electronic devices ever.
But for mainstream cellular customers, it may make sense to wait out the crowds and maybe even the first generation of the iPhone, industry experts said.
There currently are a raft of other so-called “smart phones” on the market that do similar stuff to the iPhone for much less money — just not quite as stylishly or with as much cutting-edge appeal. That’s the case, analysts add, whether you covet the device for its music, Web surfing or e-mail capabilities.
What’s more, as the newest entrant into the ruthlessly competitive wireless handset business, Apple probably can’t afford to keep such a lofty price tag — either $500 or $600 depending on the iPhone’s storage capacity — for too long, experts said. San Antonio-based AT&T Inc., the phone’s exclusive carrier, has stated that it will not offer a subsidy for the iPhone, but that, too, may change in coming months, experts add.
“There’s no question there will be some innovations with the iPhone, but the question is whether they’re worth it for the average person to spend $500 or $600 to get them right now,” said Allen Keiter of the consumer site MyRatePlan.com. “For the same price, you could buy a less expensive phone with some of the same features as an iPod, then still afford to download 200 songs from iTunes.”
While not as advanced as the iPhone or other smart phones such as the BlackBerry or Treo, there are myriad music and data-ready phones on the market available for free or $50 to consumers who sign a contract with their carrier. AT&T, for example, now offers Motorola’s RAZR — once a $500 handset — for free to customers who sign up for two years.
“There are phones on the market right not that can do everything the iPhone can do,” Yahoo Tech contributor Chris Null said. “They just may not all be in the same package, and they may not be as sexy or as easy to use.” Those keen on the iPhone’s gesture-recognizing touch screen should be aware that other manufacturers are likely to follow Apple’s lead in coming months. LG Electronics’ Prada Phone, available now in Europe and South Korea, features a similar touch screen. The Prada is expected to make its U.S. debut in coming months.
“You will see competitors’ answer to the iPhone somewhere in the next year or so,” said Roger Entner, senior vice president of IAG Research’s communications sector. “I’m sure every competitor on the market will be buying one of these to rip it apart and see how they can do the same thing.” There are already indications iPhone’s hefty price tag will deter customers. A recent survey by tech researcher IDC found that only 10 percent of mobile-phone shoppers were interested in paying full price and signing a two-year contract with AT&T to get the device.
And beyond the handset’s cost, customers will need a subscription to Apple’s iTunes and an AT&T data plan to use it. AT&T’s iPhone voice-and-data plans, unveiled Tuesday, range from $60 a month to $100 a month.
As with any new gadget, experts said, the first-generation iPhone also might have blemishes that Apple will iron out with subsequent versions. Industry blogs are full of speculation about how well the phone will work, and whether Apple plans upgrades and less expensive versions.
“Right now, we’re only talking about what we think and hope the iPhone will be,” telecom analyst Jeff Kagan said. “We’ve yet to see it in the reality of the marketplace.” Apple already has addressed some early concerns with the phone. This month, it chucked a battery with a five-hour life in favor of one that will allow eight hours of talk time. It also replaced the phone’s plastic touch screen with optical glass, which is less prone to scratches.
But at its launch, the iPhone won’t operate on AT&T’s fastest, “third generation” data network but on the company’s older EDGE network. Even though the handset’s large screen and Safari browser may give it appeal as a surfing device, analysts said slow data speeds could disappoint customers used to a faster connection.
Some also question whether every cellular user will find iPhone’s touch screen an improvement over the tiny thumb keyboards currently available on smart phones such as the BlackBerry. Cellular users already adept at tapping out text and e-mail messages on the little keyboard may struggle with a phone that doesn’t use one.
But those concerns aside, analysts admit that sitting on the sidelines may not be an option for consumers caught up in the iPhone’s glamour.
“There will always be people who want to pay a premium for being cool right now,” IAG’s Entner said.
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