As the winter approaches for countries south of the equator, health experts caution that those countries that have thus far been spared from outbreaks of the swine flu could be at an elevated risk as the virus continues to mutate and spread.
Until now, the countries most affected by the flu ““ Mexico, the U.S. Canada and countries in Europe ““ have all been located in the northern hemisphere and are just coming out of the last few months of cool winter weather. For countries in the southern hemisphere, however, autumn has already arrived and winter will be setting in the coming months.
“The highest peaks of influenza activity occur in winter,” said Raina MacIntyre of the University of New South Wales’ School of Public Health and Community Medicine in Sydney, Australia. “For us in the southern hemisphere, it’s particularly concerning.”
MacIntyre explains that flu is more easily spread during the winter months in large part because people tend to gather together indoors in confined spaces, making it easier for the virus to jump from person to person over shorter distances. She also stated that there is some evidence that the colder temperatures may make viruses in general more transmittable.
Health experts have also warned of increased risks in the coming months as the swine flu could genetically recombine with standard winter flu strains to form an even more dangerous and transmissible hybrid.
“Winter is coming in the southern hemisphere and governments have to step up their actions to protect their populations, especially in the absence of a (swine flu) vaccine,” said World Health Organization spokesman Dick Thompson. “We have a concern there might be some sort of (genetic) reassortment and that’s something we’ll be paying special attention to.”
Another WHO spokesman mentioned in a press statement on Monday that the organization is considering raising the pandemic alert level to a 6, indicating that a global pandemic is already underway.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, however, stated that the WHO currently “has no plan to raise the alert level to 6.” Margaret Chan, another WHO official, added that “we are not there yet” in a video address to the U.N. General Assembly.
Though Australia has not yet identified any cases of the H1N1 strain within its borders, neighboring New Zealand confirmed its sixth case on Monday and is still waiting for the results on another 11 probable cases.
While Mexican have officials begun to relax some restrictions and make a few cautious steps towards normalcy in the last few days, South America has confirmed its first case of the virus in Columbia, where the flu season is just beginning.
“Latin American countries may have a somewhat stronger surveillance system than in Africa. Africa’s going to need some additional support and surveillance,” said Thompson.
A number of experts, however, continue to contend that countries south of the equator should focus their efforts on battling seasonal flu outbreaks rather than the swine flu.
John Mackenzie, a flu expert at Curtin University in Australia, believes that seasonal flues could potentially pose a greater health risk than the swine flu. Vaccination efforts, he argues, should continue to focus on the elderly and people with chronic illnesses, as the effects of the swine flu have proven to be relatively mild so far.
Because vaccine makers are only able to produce one vaccine at a time and worldwide production capacity is limited, there has been some debate recently regarding whether production efforts should be diverted to provide for a potential swine flu pandemic or remain focused on creating vaccines for traditional seasonal viruses.
MacIntyre says that Australia is well prepared for the possibility of an outbreak. In recent years, a great deal of planning and resources have gone into the accumulation of a large stockpile of flu treatments and tightly coordinated emergency plans.
Australian officials say that they have enough reserves of Tamiflu and Relenza to treat well over a third of their 22 million citizens.
A number of experts have commented on the benefit that inhabitants of the southern hemisphere will have during the coming flu season, as officials in these countries will have had more time to analyze the virus and strategically prepare for an outbreak.
According to Nikolai Petrovsky, an endocrinologist at Flinders University in Adelaide, Australia, “By the time it comes to Australia and the southern hemisphere, we’ll know more about it than (they) did when it arrived over there.”
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