Most Experts Believe Cyber Attacks Will Increase Over The Next Decade

Chuck Bednar for redOrbit.com – Your Universe Online
The majority of computer experts and Internet builders predict that a major cyber attack causing widespread damage will occur by the year 2025, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center.
As part of their research, the authors of the study asked 1,642 experts whether or not a major cyber attack would take place within the next decade, damaging national security, resulting in a significant loss of life or theft/property damage of in the range of tens of billions of dollars. 61 percent of the respondents believed such an attack would occur.
Among those individuals, Pew said that there were four main key themes: the fact that Internet is a critical infrastructure for energy, banking, transportation and national defense activities, making it an attractive target to terrorists; the fact that security is typically not the primary concern in the design of Internet applications; the history of cyber attacks such as the Stuxnet worm; and the vulnerability of sectors such as finance and power grids.
“The Internet was not built for security, yet we have made it the backbone of virtually all private-sector and government operations, as well as communications,” Washington-area lawyer Joel Brenner, a fellow at the Center for International Studies at MIT, wrote in a column published by the Washington Post last Friday. “Pervasive connectivity has brought dramatic gains in productivity and pleasure but has created equally dramatic vulnerabilities.”
Pew said that there was “considerable agreement” among the experts they polled that the accounts and identities of individual Internet users would be more vulnerable to future cyber attacks, and that businesses would be “persistently” under siege from such attacks. Many respondents said that essential utilities such as the energy grid would be among the most vulnerable targets, while many expected theft to increase from current levels and that it was likely the economy could be disrupted as a result.
However, the experts had varying opinions on the likely extent of damage and disruption at both the state and national levels, Pew explained. Many believed that cyber attacks between countries had already taken place, citing the spread of the Stuxnet worm as a possible example, and while most believed that cyber attacks could deter the use of weapons of mass destruction, they also anticipate that the so-called cyber arms race will expand as both governments and other organizations work to overcome online security measures.
“Cyber attacks will become a pillar of warfare and terrorism between now and 2025. So much of a country’s infrastructure – commerce, finance, energy, education, health care – will be online, and gaining control of or disrupting a country’s online systems will become a critical goal in future conflicts,” said Joe Kochan, chief operating officer for US Ignite, a company currently working on gigabit-ready applications.
“Current threats include economic transactions, power grid, and air traffic control,” added Mark Nall, a program manager for NASA. “This will expand to include others such as self-driving cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and building infrastructure. In addition to current methods for thwarting opponents, growing use of strong artificial intelligence to monitor and diagnose itself, and other systems will help as well.”
Among the 39 percent that said they did not expect major cyber attacks to occur by 2025, there were three general themes: upgraded security infrastructure would overcome the Internet’s vulnerabilities and help prevent the worst possible attacks; the threat of retaliation would keep cyber attackers at bay; and the notion that the threat of such attacks is being exaggerated by those who would most benefit from creating an atmosphere of panic.
“Nations and others who hold necessarily secure information are getting better and better about protecting their essential assets,” said University of North Carolina professor Paul Jones. “Yes, a bunch of credit card numbers and some personal information will leak. Yes, you may not be able to place an order for a few hours. But it’s less and less likely that say all pacemakers in a major city will stop at once or that cyber attacks will cause travel fatalities.”
“Cyber attacks will always be a threat, but it is unlikely that a future cyber attack causing widespread harm will occur, any more than today,” noted business professional Todd Cotts. “The challenge will be in whether or not the government is capable of staying ahead of the cyber terrorists. As long as the government leans on a competitive marketplace of non-government companies specializing in technological advances in cyber security, the advances should keep the United States at par, at minimum, with advances by cyber terrorists.”
Also on Wednesday, researchers from the Georgia Tech Information Security Center (GTISC) released their 2015 Emerging Cyber Threats Report. In the report, the institution cautions about the loss of privacy, the abuse of trust between users and their machines, attacks against the mobile ecosystem, and the growing involvement of cyberspace in conflicts between nations and states.
“We must continue to invest in research and develop technology, processes and policies that help society deal with these developments,” GTISC Director Wenke Lee said in a statement. “Researchers from academia, the private sector, and government must continue to work together and share information on emerging threats, make improvements to policy, and educate users.”
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