China’s prevalence of selective abortion in favor of males has left the nation with 32 million more boys than girls, according to an investigation released Friday.
The imbalance will persist for decades, said the report, which supports experts who predict China’s fixation with a male heir may produce some unintended consequences as men face a life of bachelorhood and are forced to compete for a bride.
“Although some imaginative and extreme solutions have been suggested, nothing can be done now to prevent this imminent generation of excess men,” said the report.
In most areas of the world males slightly outnumber females, with roughly 103 to 107 male births for every 100 female births.
However, in China and other Asian nations that ratio has widened significantly as the preference for boys is further reinforced by the availability of low-cost ultrasound diagnostics and abortion.
The practice has enabled Chinese couples to terminate pregnancies to prevent a female birth, something that is both illegal and officially condemned.
Complicating matters further is China’s official “one-child” policy, in which most parents who have a second child are subject to fines and must contribute disproportionately towards the child’s education.
However, in some provinces a second child is allowed if the first is a girl, or if the parents are living in “hardship” conditions. A few others allow second children, and even a third, regardless of sex.
In conducting their study, Zhejiang University professors Wei Xing Zhu and Li Lu and Therese Hesketh of University College London found that China had more than 1.1 million excess male births in 2005 alone.
The largest gender imbalances in those under 20 were among one-to-four-year-olds, where there were 124 male births for each 100 female births.
The figures were 126 to 100 in rural areas of China, the researchers found. In addition to rural areas, the gap was also significant in provinces where the one-child policy was strictly enforced. For example, in Jiangxi and Henan provinces, ratios of over 140 male births for every 100 female births were observed in the 1-4 age group. The ratios were even higher for second births, with 143 male births occurring for every 100 female births. The ration peaked at an astounding 192 boys to 100 girls in Jiangsu province.
Only Tibet and Xinjiang, the most lenient about the one-child policy, had normal sex ratios.
“Sex selective abortion accounts for almost all the excess males,” the researchers wrote in their report.
“Enforcing the existing ban on sex selective abortion could lead to normalization of ratios.”
Other options are to relax enforcement of the one-child policy to allow couples to have a second child if the first is a girl, the report said.
The report does examine the social consequences of the gender imbalance, but suggests there is reason for hope.
Since 2000, the Chinese government has enacted policies seeking to counter the imbalance, including a “care for girls” initiative and an overhaul of the nation’s inheritance laws.
These programs are partially responsible for unchanged birth ratios between 2000 and 2005. Indeed, in many urban areas the ratio for the first birth is now within the normal range.
The figures in the report were based on a mini-census in China in 2005 that covered one percent of the nation’s population. The updated census sought to rectify flaws in a prior census in 2000.
Tao Liu and Xing-yi Zhang of Jilin University wrote in a commentary that China’s preferences for sons were beginning to subside with urbanization and industrialization. Additionally, pensions, social systems and higher living standards have eased the son’s conventional role of caring for his parents.
China might ultimately follow the lead of South Korea, which in 1992 had “an astounding” 229-to-100 gender imbalance in fourth births among couples, the researchers said. The ratio prompted South Korea to launch a public-awareness campaign and strictly enforced gender selection laws.
The program worked, and by 2004 there were just 110 male births to every 100 female. The ratio was 116-100 in 1998.
The current study was published online by the British Medical Journal (BMJ).
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