Maybe those jokes about welcoming robot overlords aren’t such a laughing matter after all, as a new study conducted by analytics firm Nomura Research Institute (NRI) claims that within the next 20 years, machines could hold 49 percent of all jobs in Japan.
NRI researcher Yumi Wakao, who collaborated with Professor Michael Osborne from Oxford University on the report, looked at more than 600 different types of jobs, and found that close to half of the human workers currently in those positions “could be replaced by computer systems” by the year 2035, according to Engadget and Motherboard reports.
In a previous study, Osborne and his colleagues analyzed at the possibility of computerization in 702 different occupations in the US, and found that roughly 47 percent of American jobs were at risk of being taken over by robots. Similarly, his team looked at job-based computerization in the UK and found that 35 percent of workers were at risk of displacement by 2035.
Wakao told Motherboard that the study was “a hypothetical technical calculation” and that it did not account for “social factors.” While jobs requiring creativity, compassion, and abstract thought will be the hardest to replace, but she added, a shrinking population likely means that Japan could be experiencing a labor shortage in the near future, opening the door for machines.
Menial jobs most at risk, while creative positions are safest
As part of their research, the NRI investigated the likelihood that the tasks associated with each position could be automated, based on degree of creativity involved. Jobs such as taxi drivers or security personnel were found to be highly susceptible to mechanical takeover, while writers and teachers will likely continue to be the domain of humans for a while longer.
“Service jobs that require creativity, communication, empathy, or negotiation will be hard to replace with computerization,” Wakao explained to Motherboard. “In the report, the researchers comment that the Japanese are good at jobs in these industries, and that if other sectors could be automated, it would free more people to do such jobs.”
In fact, robots are already performing some of these tasks, such as those manning the reception desk at Japan’s Henn-na hotel. However, Wakao noted that the percentage of at-risk jobs there is higher than in the UK because many of the jobs which are already performed by machines in the UK are still being done by flesh-and-blood humans in Japan.
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